All the estimates of Springfield's Haitian population are wrong

[Nevilledog]

https://www.the-downballot.com/p/all-the-estimates-of-springfields

Just how many Haitian immigrants have moved to Springfield, Ohio, in recent years? It's a question at the center of the new national discussion about the city's resurgence and ensuing struggles to accommodate its new growth. There's no definitive answer, but we can say this: Almost every estimate you've seen is wrong—and too high.

In particular, the oft-quoted figure that 20,000 new residents from Haiti have settled in Springfield is not accurate. The real number is likely around half that amount. Here's how we know.

After shrinking dramatically over the last half-century, Springfield has worked hard to revitalize emptying neighborhoods by attracting new residents and workers. By all accounts, this civic revival is succeeding. Springfield's population peaked at more than 80,000 in 1960 but then began a continuous decline, falling to under 60,000 in 2020. But that decline appears to be leveling off as the city experiences what the local newspaper called in 2022 a "resurgence."

Newcomers from Haiti have played a critical role in this transformation, and their actual number is likely more in line with official estimates in the low five figures. But even these assessments may be too large: New data from the Census Bureau shows only a tiny increase in Springfield's Haitian population, though it, too, has sources of error, and comes to us already a year out of date.

*snip*