I still can't believe that this election is this close. That this nation may...

[pat_k]

11. This thought keeps me sane.

Perhaps the analysis is wrong, but here's what I believe:

Pollsters are correcting for under-sampling Trump voters in 2016 and 2020 by oversampling them this year. As a consequence, they aren't detecting the actual spread.

In addition, the actual dynamics are in the opposite direction of the corrections.

This year, we have a meaningful number of Trump supporters who tell pollsters they are voting for Trump, but when it comes down to actually doing it, they just won't be able to. Either they won't turn out, will vote third party, or will vote Harris. In 2020 and particularly in 2016, the underlying dynamic was the opposite. There was a segment of folks who voted for Trump who didn't to admit their intention to pollsters.

Anyway, add the pollsters misguided corrections to the underlying phenomenon of Trump support eroding in the closing days as a meaningful percentage abandon him when it counts, and you get a "surprisingly strong" Harris victory.

This analysis may be proven wrong, but until it is, I'm sticking with it.

Do more. Worry less.