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Metaphorical

(2,528 posts)
2. I believe the same thing
Sat Nov 9, 2024, 01:24 AM
Nov 2024

I lived through the inflation of the 70s, which is why this particular bout of it was not all that surprising to me. Monetarist theory (Freidman) holds that inflation is due to overstimulus of the economy unconditionally, but I think Keynes was fundamentally correct in that inflation was almost invariably due to supply-chain disruptions, and usually then metasticizes when upstream producers absorb lower prices as profits (and often continue raising prices because they can). Volcker provided a fair amount of evidence suggesting the latter is the case because he raised interest rates and economic activity (hence prices) fell, something that wouldn't have happened if government stimulus was the only factor.

Not surprisingly, conservatives will not / cannot believe this. Their entire economic model is built on maximizing profits, which of course is exactly what happens when inflation takes place (up to a certain point). Eventually, of course, it transfers most of the money that padded the middle class to the wealthy, and their profits begin to decline. At this point, they start firing workers in order to goose their stock prices and dividends, but this of course only accelerates the process. If interest rates are low, these same companies can get by by using rolling lines of credit (never touching their dividend stream).

The GOP made a big mistake in 2002. They made inflation an issue. Biden reacted by raising interest rates, which had worked with Volcker, and ... lo and behold, inflation began dropping again. However, it also meant that a lot of businesses that ONLY stay afloat because they were borrowing that money at low interest rates from the government suddenly faced dramatically higher interest rates, and their business models collapsed. Then Biden did the unthinkable and tried to impose a windfall profit tax (again harking back to Carter) to claw back some of those unearned profits, while also prosecuting companies for price gouging.

The Barons struck back overthrowing the existing King and putting one of their own in place. I don't think that person is Trump, FWIW. Trump will be eliminated the moment that he has a falling out with them, and I think that's pretty much inevitable. They likely feel that they don't need him now that he's delivered the keys to the castle.

However, I also think that the Barons are also going to discover that they need the support of the people, especially when the economy, after improving due to what Biden has done, starts to go south again as Trump undoes as much of this as he can. The economy is fragile, due largely to the ravages of the Barons - Biden's taken a sick patient out of the ICU, but it's still in seriously bad condition, and another couple of destructive hurricane seasons, a world war, climate change, and general mismanagement will send it right back into critical shape.

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