Tomasky: Why Does No One Understand the Real Reason Trump Won?

[nmmi]

155. Do you mean post 86?

Last edited Sat Nov 9, 2024, 09:19 AM - Edit history (3)

#65 doesn't have anything on polls
#86 has this gift article link -- https://wapo.st/3Cm0Enu
which morphs into https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/08/trump-voter-demographic-shifts-election/

Methodology

The 2024 network exit poll results (https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/exit-polls-2024-election/?itid=lk_inline_manual_51) are from interviews of 22,914 randomly selected voters as they exited voting places across the country on Nov. 5; as well as from early in-person voting locations and through live telephone, text-to-web or by email. The poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool consortium of ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News. Results are preliminary and will change as additional interviews are included and results are weighted to match vote tallies by region. Like other surveys, exit polls are subject to sampling error and other sources of error.

I looked at that, and I saw the same 2024 numbers as the poll Rstrstx post in #111, namely
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
for the groups I checked...

What is significantly different or doesn't add up?
TIA

Edited to add
Looking at the subthread beginning with #6, if the issue is the Black shift from 2020 to 2024. According to the Washington Post link,

Black men down-shifted: from a margin favoring the Democratic candidate of 60% in 2020 to 56% in 2024,
while Black women up-shifted from a margin of 81% to 84%.

there's no Black overall in the Wapo, but yes, judging from the above, Black overall seems to have been about the same margin in 2024 as in 2020, which I don't see anyone disagreeing with in the subthread (and Black women voted in larger numbers than Black men per the NBC data, so the 4% downshift of Black men coupled with the 3% upshift of black women comes to less than a 1% Black overall difference when weighted by the sizes of the two demographics)

Another edited to add - the shifts may be well within the margin of sampling error.

Another issue is turnout - I read that overall tRump got about the same number of votes as in 2020 but the Democratic candidate got millions fewer. This is true of some of the demographic subgroups too.