A few thoughts on the collapse of civilized society.

[NickB79]

7. Frankly? Yes

I've watched the science evolve on climate change since I was a freshman in high school 30 yr ago. I have no hope left at this point for a functioning, global civilization when we breach 2C of warming. We're currently on or close to the WORST-CASE paths envisioned, with atmospheric carbon loads rising faster than any time in millions of years. This year we'll be a solid 1.5C above the pre-industrial baseline, and positive feedback loops like forest fires and permafrost thawing will keep this going no matter how much renewable energy we build out. It will be a miracle if we don't breach 3C by 2100.

I figure that by the end of the century, most nations near the equator will be too hot and humid for human survivability. Wars will be fought over arable land and fresh water, waves of refugees will be streaming north, and nations will either use military force to keep them out or collapse under the humanitarian weight. At the same time, they'll be fighting against erratic weather causing multi-billion dollar natural disasters, wiping out coastal cities and crops. Global civilization will fragment into regional civilizations, only a few of which will retain a semblance of democracy, international trade will grind to a halt, and large parts of the planet will fall under the control of warlords, dictators and fundamentalists like we saw in Somalia and Afghanistan.

There's a damn good reason I never moved out of Minnesota, why I created a permaculture mini-farm on 2 acres, and why I'm looking to buy more land, this time close to the Canadian border. All that keeps me going is trying to leave my teenage daughter a piece of property that she can fall back on as an adult in 20 years time.