I firmly believe a pivotal moment that breaks the fever of Trumpism will come

[Bernardo de La Paz]

14. Can happen. The country is measured in thirds and sixths

The boundaries of the groups I will discuss are not sharp or easily marked. The groups are blurred, overlapping and multi-dimensional. They have sub-groups. But whatever, this is a first-order model. Measurements stated here are approximate but I think capture most of the actual proportions. One third is about 33 %. One half of one third is one sixth or about 15 % (rounded down a bit, a rounder number).

One third is blue, one third is red, and one third is the wobbly middle. tRump won 1 percent more of the wobbly middle than Harris did. As far as I know at this time. The wobbly middle doesn't pay much attention to news or politics and is more erratic in its rate of voting.

The red at this point is basically tRumpian maga. The third has two halves. The softer half is the life-long conservative Republicans who are pretty steady and traditional. The hard core is cult members who have been on board since tRump 1.0. They are irretrievable. They are about the same size as the 15% that clung to Nixon as an icon in the late 70s.

The middle has an extra wobbly half of the third (one sixth) in the very center.

tRump's approval rating is a good measure (esp. in relation to other Presidents). It shows that the extra wobbly center has moved against tRump. They don't know much, but they've heard the stock market is down and Muck is taking a chainsaw to government. This worries them a little.

One half of the middle half of the middle third has shifted to disapproval, moving the needle from 50% to 44%.

Before long just about all of the middle will have shifted. That would move the needle to about 33%. If tRump has not made a big course correction and is reversing a lot of stuff by then, conditions will continue to worsen and the soft part of red will start peeling away like a drip, to mix my metaphors. I think by time the needle gets into the thirties, we will be seeing mass action in multiple forms, with very noticeable participation but not revolutionary. If it gets into the low thirties, pressure from mass action will be making the tRump-Muck presidency crack in several ways.

As I see things, Muck is breaking things in ways that no President could fix quickly, and certainly not tRump even if panics and reverses course at some point. He is incompetent and they are both short-sighted and unwise.

Muck is breaking things at the same time as tRump is fucking up US foreign and trade policy and overturning domestic labour markets. tRump is not targetting his tariff taxes one at a time, but is using a blunderbuss to fire at the whole world.

Much depends on when the reds start drifting away from tRump and when the middle gets angrier.

My conclusion is that there will be a tipping point and whether or not there is a visible "Have you no decency, Sen McCarthy" event, once it passes, things will get a bit heated. At that point if tRump-Vance-Patel-Bondi don't reverse course, or get impeached or get forced into resignation by twelve Republican Senators going to the White House ... it could get very heated.

But mass action could convince tRump to reverse course before that point, to "save" his legacy, since he is very ratings oriented.