She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data

[Foolacious]

51. Discrepancies between early/mail-in votes and day-of-election votes.

Some of the evidence is of the "Wow, that seems really unlikely" variety. And some of it is of the "this is an inconsistency that is unexplainable... unless the Republicans cheated" variety. Here is some of the latter form of evidence from the posted article that I'll present here for (I hope) further clarity:

"Drop-off" is an election-related term of art that refers to the amount by which an up-ballot candidate's vote exceeds that of a down-ballot candidate of the same party. For example, if Democratic presidential candidate Smith receives 50% of the vote in the state of Jeffersonia, and Democratic senate candidate Jones receives 48% of the vote in the same state, then Smith's drop-off margin is 2%. (In fact, 2% is actually a typical drop-off margin.) If Smith receives 1% fewer votes than Jones, then Smith is said to have "negative drop-off".

Now, if a candidate has a certain amount of drop-off within a state, there is no reason for the amount of that drop-off to vary depending on whether the votes being analyzed are mail-in votes, early votes, or day-of-election votes. If Smith is less popular than Jones, then that will be true by about the same margin regardless of whether we're looking at day-of votes or early votes or mail-in votes. There is no reason for a candidate to have a significantly different drop-off among mail-in votes versus day-of votes.

But in the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania (which is the data being most heavily analyzed right now), this discrepancy is exactly what we see. Trump and Harris have similar drop-offs among mail-in voters: 1.96% versus 1.48%. But in day-of voting, Trump's drop-off more than doubles to 4.15% (which is good for him), while Harris's drops by almost half to 0.87% (which is bad for her). This is not a case of "Well, I guess Trump was just more popular". There is no mechanism aside from fraud that yields this kind of discrepancy among voters within a single party.