The August Jobs Report will be 5 million new jobs created

[Wiz Imp]

14. Here's what I think will happen. It will be both not as bad as people think and far worse than anyone can imagine at

the same time.

I have been saying since day one that the Bureau Of Labor Statistics employees would not put up with being made to manipulate the data and many here insisted I was wrong and the data has been manipulated all along. Well, I hope yesterday finally made those people realize they were wrong and I was right.

So going forward, it remains to be seen what exactly happens but I can guarantee that the Trump administration will not be able to get away with publishing obviously fake data. From one article I saw yesterday:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-orders-firing-bls-commissioner-weak-jobs-report-rcna222531

The deputy commissioner of BLS, Bill Wiatrowski, who took up the role during the Obama administration, will become the acting chief "during the search for a replacement," Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said.

Julie Hatch Maxfield, the official who oversees the office that produces the employment report, joined the agency during Trump's first term.

I know Bill Wiatrowski and Julie Hatch Maxfield and they are good people. The line about Julie Hatch Maxfield joining the agency during Trump's first term is blatantly false. She has actually worked at BLS since 1999. She became Associate Commissioner for the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics in 2019. Those Associate Commissioner jobs have always been non-political and do not require Senate Confirmation. The Commissioner job does require Senate Confirmation.

Bill and Julie may be the next to get fired, but as long as they are running things, I have confidence BLS will continue to produce honest jobs numbers.

If Trump installs a new Commissioner that insists on manipulating the data to make Trump look good, I expect you will see a mass resignation of the majority of BLS employees. Seriously, these are good people with integrity. These people will NOT put their job above their integrity and honesty so I believe most will resign.

Also realize that it takes a large number of staff to produce the jobs estimates. Even a small exodus of staff would make it nearly impossible to produce data with any connection to actual statistical survey procedures in a timely manner.

Also note these comments from a former Deputy Labor Secretary:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-firing-bls-commissioner-stupid_n_688d2290e4b022644fdf3079?origin=top-ad-recirc

“It’s preposterously stupid and deeply dangerous for our economy,” Seth Harris, who served as the deputy labor secretary under former President Barack Obama, told HuffPost.

“There is absolutely no chance that the BLS commissioner or anyone else at BLS manipulated the jobs and unemployment data to hurt Donald Trump politically,” said Harris, now a law professor at Northeastern University. “Donald Trump produced these bad job and unemployment numbers with his policies,” he said. “It’s not the people counting the jobs — it’s the guy who’s overseeing the economy.”

Harris said firing her would mark a grave escalation in Trump’s habit of sowing doubt about the government’s economic research. He said “capitalism depends on certainty and transparency,” which isn’t what the country would get if the commissioner were beholden to the president. “The danger is that the public, economic actors, decision-makers in government and the business community and everyone else who’s trying to figure out what’s going on in our economy will doubt the validity of the numbers,” he said. “If you do not have an accurate picture of what is happening in the economy, you cannot make sound decisions.”

He added that if anyone had manipulated data, a number of whistleblowers would have stepped forward.

If the data is manipulated, we will know it right way because BLS staff will definitely blow the whistle on bad actors. Just this one action by Trump has already sowed massive distrust moving forward. All those people for whom this BLS data is absolutely essential to their work and research will NOT use faked data. They will look for more reliable sources of data.

This will have a domino effect on the entire economy. I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say if this administration actually follows through with faking the data, it could very well trigger an economic depression. It will do more harm the the US than I think anyone can even imagine.