Scoop: Trump plan asks Ukraine to cede additional territory for security guarantee

[Celerity]

The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-donbas

Why it matters: Ukraine and its backers would see that as an enormous concession to Russia. The White House view, according to the U.S. official, is that Ukraine is likely to lose the territory anyways if the war continues and "therefore it is in Ukraine's interest to reach a deal now."

Breaking it down: The two thorniest issues in the Ukraine talks up to now have been who will control what territory once the war is over, and how Ukraine can be assured that Russia won't simply resume the war at a later date. The 28-point Trump plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk (together referred to as the Donbas), despite Ukraine still controlling around 14.5% of the territory there, per the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. Despite being under Russian control, the areas in Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw would be considered a demilitarized zone, with Russia not able to position troops there. In two other war-torn regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control would mostly be frozen in place, with Russia returning some land, subject to negotiations.



Between the lines: According to the Trump plan, the U.S. and other countries would recognize Crimea and the Donbas as lawfully Russian territory but Ukraine would not be asked to. A Ukrainian official claimed the plan also included limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military and on its long-range weapons in return for U.S. security guarantees. The Ukrainian official also confirmed that the U.S. plan includes Ukrainian territorial concessions in the Donbas. It's unclear what the U.S. security guarantees would entail beyond a promise to defend against further Russian aggression.

The intrigue: According to two sources with direct knowledge, Qatar and Turkey are involved in the drafting of the new Trump plan and in supporting the U.S. mediation efforts. "The Qatari and Turkish mediation helped in ending the war in Gaza and could help in ending the war in Ukraine," one of the sources said. A senior Qatari official participated in the talks between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's national security adviser Rustem Umerov last weekend, the sources said.

Behind the scenes: ......................

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