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Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
15. That would be this fellow
Mon Sep 2, 2013, 07:27 PM
Sep 2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wael_Nader_al-Halqi

Wael Nader al-Halqi

Now, he was appointed to the position of Prime Minister by Asad. If you have any hope that he is in any way significantly different than the lunatic currently in power, don't hold your breath for any change. That by the way would not end the civil war, it would not get the various factions warring to stop, and even if he stepped down and handed power over to a transitional ruling council, they would have to been appointed to something by Assad. Now, the military isn't strong enough on their own to end the war as was the case in Egypt.

In other words, no matter what happens, the civil war will rage for years. At least tens of thousands will die, and probably hundreds of thousands. The only way to end it is the unthinkable, put US forces into the nation, and then set up a puppet Government like we did in Iraq. The population of Syria is more like Iraq, that means educated and at least familiar with Western ideals, unlike Afghanistan where a vast majority of the country was still tribal in nature. So this plan might work over the next decade.

I say it is unthinkable because we have already ruled it out, and there is no way the American Public gets behind the Iraq mission part two, the Syrian Sequel. Europe wants action, but really doesn't want to commit. Saudi Arabia wants someone to do it, but not them. Syria is bordered by Israel, no help there with stabilization. Lebanon, not a great leader in the area, and hardly more stable. Iraq, enough said. Jordan, which has said no way, no how, and no thanks. And finally Turkey. None of them are liable to be a big help in stabilizing the nation.

Remember, it's not just getting rid of Asad, it's stabilizing and shutting the civil war down. The problem with Civil War's is that after a month, everyone has blood debts to repay. They can't stop because they swore an oath to their brother/cousin/best friend/father/someone else's memory that they would fight forever. Victory or death tends to be the goal.

Now, we know the Rebel forces are bad guys, we know the Government is full of bad guys, and the chances of someone going in and setting up a stable democracy are about one in a thousand. The odds may not be that good. We can't help, we can't stop the radical's backed by AQ and get them to see reason, we can't get the Muslim Brotherhood factions to do it either. We are left with a four way mess. Helping one to win just inflicts that group on the people who have already suffered more than enough.

This is why I keep calling for intelligent plans, which I haven't seen. We aren't the referees in this mess. We can't be. Otherwise the Asad regime will come to us complaining about innocents that the Rebels slaughtered and demanding a missile strike to punish them. Traditionally we have been hands off in Civil Wars for a reason. We don't want the war, and we don't like the death, but there is no way to make them stop fighting and learn to live together.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

It appears the Syrian government is responsible so far. lumpy Sep 2013 #1
Ok, so how involved will we be? Savannahmann Sep 2013 #2
Some how we need to squeeze Assad's balls and get him to retire in luxury somewheres. Let his regime KittyWampus Sep 2013 #4
That would be Regime Change Savannahmann Sep 2013 #6
Ah, no. Keep the regime just have the next in line take the top spot & restart negotiating. KittyWampus Sep 2013 #11
That would be this fellow Savannahmann Sep 2013 #15
Excellent analysis. jazzimov Sep 2013 #17
It's almost no question. READ DER SPEIGEL. Assad is losing & desperate. The next wave of refugees KittyWampus Sep 2013 #3
Assad is winning.... Junkdrawer Sep 2013 #7
from today's Der Spiegel: Assad is desperate & forces are defecting. You're misinformed re:rebels KittyWampus Sep 2013 #9
Key Free Syria Army rebel 'killed by Islamist group' Junkdrawer Sep 2013 #12
The problem is that Warpy Sep 2013 #5
Exactly. 3 days of UN investigation is a joke.... Junkdrawer Sep 2013 #10
Agree...we need a Joe Wilson...a higher up who can reveal...but in this KoKo Sep 2013 #14
If instead of the US using this as a pretext for bombing, we treat it as a CRIME... Junkdrawer Sep 2013 #16
This is the way it was supposed to work...with United Nations... KoKo Sep 2013 #18
So you are saying the Syrian Gov. did not turn on it's own people? vaberella Sep 2013 #8
He knows Obama has been trying to stay out of the conflict, but that the CW Red Line was out there. Junkdrawer Sep 2013 #13
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