Why Scientists Say Ebola Will Surge But Then Level Off Before The Disease Takes Over The World

[HereSince1628]

2. Perhaps, true, but that's not especially reassuring...

Equilibrium prevalence can be worked out of 100 year old mathematical models of epidemics, as a balance of rates of transmission and recovery (or death).

But, the same is true of wild fire which is conceptually something people can better understand.

If you think about pictures and video you've seen of grass, brush, or forest fires, you'll recognize that what's burning is usually pretty small relative to the zone of destruction the wildfire leaves behind as it spreads. That's the balance between whats burning and what's burned. What is on fire is just the boundary of the area burnt, a relatively thin fireline (the equilibrium prevalence) moving away from a zone of charred landscape that is often many times greater often a couple orders of magnitude greater.

We shouldn't be reassured. There's going to be a staggering amount of death with the current ebola epidemic.

The deaths will bias toward people who provide care, from mothers, sisters and aunts to Drs and nurses. Areas are going to run out of care-givers. Suffering from -all- causes is going to multiply.

Misery is going to happen at epic levels. A moral, empathetic world would be rushing to mobilize resources that are going to be needed to put out the fire, and to deal with the aftermath.