Are we the first, or one of the first civilizations in the galaxy?

[lumberjack_jeff]

3. Here's my logic on the matter

The universe is 14 billion years old.
The earth and this solar system in general, have been an interesting place to visit for about 4 billion years
The moon's surface has been mostly unchanged for about 500 million years. The only trace of technology on the moon is shit we've put there.
Technological civilization is about 1000 years old, and has advertised its presence for about 100 years.
We've sent robots to the outer reaches of our system and are now on their way to other stars. In 1000 years, self-repairing and replicating robotic probes will litter our part of the galaxy. Yet, they meet no counterparts from elsewhere.
The fact that the galaxy itself isn't entirely composed of gray goo is an interesting observation.
So, Fermi was right?
Perhaps not.
Consider this;

at least one of three possibilities is true:
1) The human species is likely to go extinct before reaching a "posthuman" stage.
2) Any posthuman civilization is very unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of its evolutionary history.
3) We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121210132752.htm