Why do conservatives fall for Trump? It's because of errors in our thinking and

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6. this helps explain why polling is potentially problematic.

studies have shown that poll responses can be manipulated (quite possibly unintentionally) by many circumstances.

please of du'ers, of course, will say we're voting for hillary regardless, and there are plenty of right-wingers who will say trump.

but a significant number of people can be influenced by the exact phrasing of the question or even the previous questions.

pollsters know this and often use it deliberately, partly to get the result they want, and partly to test the effectiveness of certain lines of attack that campaigns might want to use in ads.

for example, if you lead in with a question about some "scandal" relating to one candidate or another, and follow it with a which candidate would you vote for question, you'd very likely get lower results for the candidate involved in the scandal than if you hadn't mentioned it. this is true even if the respondent knew about the scandal.

i.e., you're invoking "system 1". problem is, actual voting usually relies more on "system 2".