The fish is rotting from the head for the second time in Russian history, Eidman says

[Igel]

3. No.

That needs a few words.

First, poll after poll says that Russian prefer stability to Western freedoms. They're like Turkish. Both missed the Enlightenment; both missed the Reformation. Both had the Horde or it's twin. Both are diverse societies that would fly apart except for a strong central government.

Polls also show they think they mostly have Western freedoms. The young? They're fine where they are. Those that don't tend to like things like gay rights or drugs, or are in it for the economics: Like a lot of the idiot protesters in the Arab Spring and Trump voters, they assume that "freedom" entails increased prosperity. Within a month or two, but certainly by New Year's. (Good luck with that delusion.) They also resent being talked down to and told that their values are certainly antediluvian and need an upgrade to Western Values 2.0. They don't push the "continue" button; they click "cancel" and seek to block automatic updates to their wetware.

International politics in Russia are binary: "Hurray for our side!" or "Who's kept us from greatness?" Even during "hurray for our side!" periods there's still the "who's still keeping us from even greater greatness" mantra in the background, as needed. Everything else is "blah-blah-blah-blah." They're very much like that by social network in the US, but Americans aren't in as much lockstep as Russians so it's less obvious. We also live in a much smaller country so we have to know more about what's beyond our borders. (Never thought you'd hear somebody say that, didja?)

Communism didn't just fail. For some, the USSR was subverted from the outside. Viz., the West. Or economic sanctions slowed them down. This is Maduro's playbook in Venezuela, if you haven't noticed. Also Saddam Hussein's. For other Russians, the problem was a few bad personalities. Stalin was pretty good with a few unpleasant quirks. For Communism to fail meant that Russians failed. Nationalism and partisanship preclude that (Stalin wasn't Russian!). (D) point to internal enemies; Russians are still ethnic-tribal and point to external foes. Then again, (D) are very much like that these days--the internal foe is working with the external foe (who passed itself off as a friend and tricked our guy for years! the vermin!) It sounds tak uzh kak 1993 g, po kraine mere ko mne. Or "it sounds so 1993, at least to me." Just swap out TsRU (CIA) for their FSB.


There's a reason that Putin hated HRC. Seriously, it's hard to miss if you seek to understand the enemy. A bit of empathy helps here--empathy's more important with foes and opponents than it is with friends if you want to actually have a clue instead of a stereotype.

Russia saw a bunch of color revolutions at its borders, and from their perspective it always had Western NGOs behind them, Western ideas, Western influences. (Again, see Chavez and Maduro, Collected Revelatory Rants from Utopia, Venezuelan "Official Truth" Publishing House, Havana, 2016.) Russia was brought down by the West. Albright said that it had "too many natural resources for one country." It's allies and friends like Serbia were under attack. Surely the imperialist US had Moscow next for economic and political satrapy? We may argue that those revolutions happened because the people *chose* to be more Western, that they resented Russia and the USSR, but from their perspective that's not true. They were subverted. And what, you're questioning the authenticity of their perspectives and opinions?

The West, the story goes, was responsible for the oligarchs--who, conveniently, had put much of their money in the West and got money from the West. Native cultural values were at risk: the West sought domination, genocide. And then in 2011 there was the "white revolution" that failed--and behind it, from their POV, America. Clinton, in particular. Who then denounced Putin and made horrible accusations that I doubt Putin thinks are true. All those people upset because of the Ukrainian "cookies" phone call here? Imagine if there was actual money documented to have been transferred, logistic support provided, training that took place. Americans on the ground advising those who protested and called for removal of Putin.

Don't get it? Imagine your response if it was clearly documented last November that a Russian staffer getting money from the Kremlin as part of "Russ-Aid" for development of a better balanced American society was in the Trump campaign office and provided the money and equipment for the Trump campaign. And had been in Romney's office in 2012 and McCain's in 2008. At the same time, Putin took every chance to say bad things about Obama. What would Obama have done? And how many DUers would be saying, "You know, Obama's wrong in being tough in dealing with this interference?" Or how would we respond to, "Many Americans are opposed to Obama, and we just need to help them effect regime change behind the scenes." Now you're getting warmer. The mirror ain't pretty.

From their perspective the US has been at war with Russia since 1946. In the '90s there were American carpetbaggers.

So, yeah, have somebody "help the Russian people behind the scenes." Play into the paranoia. Give them evidence to use against their political opposition that they're right and the opposition are traitors working for the US. You see the xenophobia and paranoia here? It would be nothing compared to what you'd see in Russia--to what you have seen in Russia, to be honest. For the same kinds of (suspected) things.

It's like the anti-imperialist anti-American attitude among some sections of the Latin American population. It's justified in part. Much of the "evidence" is suspicion and mostly fiction, but there's enough real intervention by the US south of the border to justify suspicion and paranoid. Take Maduro, again, as an example. We "get it" for them. We don't "get it" in the case of Russia because, frankly, we support overthrowing that regime. (How Putin's better than Saddam, I don't know. But look at Assad--he wasn't a bad guy under Bush II, but he was under Obama. It wasn't Assad that changed, it was domestic US politics. In 2008, even 2012, Russia still wasn't a foe because Obama wanted a reset and that switch didn't reset anything but did turn off critical thinking skills across the US. Gradually, though, they rebooted, but what really switched things was when we could blame Trump on Putin. And we both loathe Trump and need to blame somebody besides just an inchoate mass of stupid white men for Trump.)

No, I don't have a solution. It's like in 2008--people were like, "Duh, there's a problem, but I'd really like the financial mess cleared up by the end of next week." But for sure, we're not going to stop poking Russia with a sharp stick until we feel safe. And Russia's not going to stop poking us with a sharp stick until *they* feel safe. And they don't. (Beyond that I have this little problem in that sometimes humans seem like a different species to me. I've observed them for over 45 years and think I get it most days, but this is sort of an extreme circumstance. No intuition. Just logic, and people aren't logical, even in their beliefs that they are.)

I'm not sure there is a solution. Attitudes are set and it's not like Russians are going to change. We had Bill Clinton failed (new Russia); Bush II failed (maybe Putin's okay); Obama failed (he has no excuse, nor did HRC). Now Trump (he really sounds like Obama--"they're not bad people, it was my predecessor they didn't like&quot .

In '89 my Russian teacher, not a stupid fellow (but a bit of a perv) harshed our enthusiasm. "Glasnost'! Perestroika! Russia'll be just like us in 5 years," we said. Many sounded like the blockheads who said the same thing about the Arab Spring protesters. He said it would take at least 3, probably 4 generations. The "mentalitet", the mentality, needed to change. He said the first generation was the adults at the time: they knew how bad it had been and most would suffer for change, but others would mourn the stuff they'd lost. That generation's kids would hear firsthand how bad it had been but wouldn't believe them--they'd remember happy childhoods followed by economic collapse that screwed with their lives. They'd push back for the "good old days" when they came to have political clout. "Back to the USSR!", Nazad v CCCP--yes, you could see those signs recently. There was a nice multipart series with that name in 2010 in which the hero goes back to the USSR, falls in love, and loves it so much he decides to stay there.

*Their* children, Gen III, would be content with what was there, it's what they knew and grew up with, and it wasn't so bad. After all, these things take time. Gen IV would look and say, "Time's up, where's the beef?"

He was talking about the '20s and '30s and '40s. First generation suffered the Civil War and privation with some push back. Second generation resented it and ran into Stalin's buzzsaw. It was interrupted by the Great Patriotic War, WWII. But in the '60s and '70s it was "it's what they knew and grew up with". The '80s saw the collapse, "Time's up, where's the beef?"

Putin's the push back, the kids who saw a happy childhood go to crap and suffered privation and problems. The cycle's a bit shorter these days, so maybe there's hope for Gen IV by the time I'm 80. Until then you deal, but you have to figure out what rewards are from the other guy's perspective. Russians decide what a reward is, that's not up to us. So far our rewards are like giving Russian kid a Ukrainian flag when he gets an A on a test. Not cool.

Now, since this post is downright gloomy--the best we can do is stop screwing up like we have for the last 20 years and maybe wait it out--here are some anti-Russian jokes:

An American tells a Russian that the United States is so free he can stand in front of the White House and yell, "To hell with Ronald Reagan!" The Russian replies: "That's nothing. I can stand in front of the Kremlin and yell, 'To hell with Ronald Reagan,' too." (Oddly, it works all over again with "Donald Trump" under Putin.)

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP89G00720R000800040003-6.pdf