Suicide bomber kills 13 at mosque in Saudi Arabia

[happyslug]

7. It is one branch of the House of Saud Attacking another branch, an internal family fight.

I have written in this subject earlier, pointing out that King Saud I, who died in 1952, unified present day Saudi Arabia using both guile and force. Like any first generation Dictator, when he died his Sons took over and ruled his empire collectively. They would pick one of themselves to be the ruler, and replace that person when he no longer had support from within the family (as what happened to the first successor in King Saud in the 1960s) or dead (either by being killed or of old age).

As long as the Second Generation were in charge, the blood letting that is typical of succession fights are absent. The reason is the sons grew up together and learned to worked together under their father and when he died they continued that policy.

In such dictatorship it is when the grandsons (or Third generation) start to take over you start to see infighting. A recent example was the Soviet Union. Stalin also died in 1952, but he was NOT succeeded by his sons, but by those bureaucrats he had promoted during the Purges of the late 1930s, WWII or the post war purges. Thus Stalin was succeeded by this second generation that ruled collectively, like sons in a hereditary monarchy would do. Being bureaucrats not sons, they tend to be 20-30 years older then the Sons of King Saud I, thus the third generation started to gain power in the Soviet Union 20-30 years before the third generation did so in Saudi Arabia.

The affect of this can be seen in the Soviet Union of the 1970s and 1980s. Any variation from official dogma could and was used to destroy upcoming third generation persons in the Soviet Union (you learned to keep your month shut and tote the party's line). Thus you have the intervention in Afghanistan, something Stalin avoided at all costs, as did the Second Generation till the third generation started to move into power in the 1970s. Afghanistan ended up being a debacle and a whole set of bureaucrats lost out on any chance of being the head of the Soviet Union. When Gorbachev took over, he was first third generation ruled of the Soviet Union and that is when the infighting starting big time. Gorbachev was in power by the mid 1980s, but kept running into opposition not only from people who wanted to break up the Soviet Union but people who wanted to save it they think Stalin would have. This lead to Gorbachev slowly giving up the sole power of the Communist Party, permitting non communists (which tended to be ex Communists like Yeltsin). Then the right wing of the Ruling class attempted a coup and failed and the Soviet Union was no more.

Please note, the people of the Soviet Union did not want to kill anyone, they did not want a Civil War, thus the refusal to do any mass killing of protesters. The Coup leaders found out the draftee army that was the Red Army reflected the thinking of the people of the Soviet Union, i.e no use of violence to suppress protesters. Thus you have a relatively non violent overthrow of Gorbachev and dissolution of the Soviet Union. Some infighting continued throughout the 1990s as Yeltsin tried to use neo-liberalism economics to convert Russia to a Capitalist country, but as that became more and more clear a disaster he was replaced by Putin, who is a fourth generation leader from Stalin, who then used Keynesian economics to get the Russian Economy going.

Saudi Arabia today is like the Soviet Union in the 1980s. It has NOT yet ditched its last second generation ruler (A son of King Saud I is King of Arabia), but the grandsons (the third generation the Yeltsin-Gorbachev generation equivalent) are moving into position and fighting among themselves. This is complicated by the fact King Saud I and his sons all had multiple wives, AND it is common for Arabs to marry their cousins. i.e. one branch of the family will marry another branch, bring the two branches closer together.

ISIS is supported by some elements of the House of Saud, I suspect other elements oppose ISIS and some support the Moslem Brotherhood. All of the members of the House of Saud should be Salafists and thus support ISIS, but how each branch of the family differ as to when and how much.

This bombing occurred NORTH of Yemen, which itself involved in a Civil War between its rulers and a Shiite branch of Islam. It was aimed at Saudi Special Forces, whose locations are generally kept secret but someone found out about them and went to their mosque to kill them. The bomber may be a Yemani Shiite or someone else who hates the House of Saud. Who leaked the location of these Special Forces personnel? The suicide bomber was probably a Yemani who was recruited because he hates the House of Saud and was told this was the best way to attack the House of Saud. Thus the religion of the Suicide bomber is unimportant, what is important how did he find out the Special Forces were at that mosque at that time? That type of inside information is generally kept secret, but leaked when it is to someone's advantage. Thus the real issue is who leaked the information and why? I suspect it has something to do with the growing infighting among the grandsons of King Saud I, just like Gorbachev had all types of problems when he ruled the Soviet Union. Gorbachev's main enemy was NOT the US or Western Europe, but his fellow third generation leaders who were doing what they could to undermine Gorbachev and improve they own chance of ended up ruling the Soviet Union.

The same with the present King of Saudi Arabia. He is a son of King Saud I, but his Crown Prince is the first third generation person in that position. We will NOT see any overt fighting, but a lot of knives in the back of other members of the House of Saud. Like the Soviet Union 1985-1989 the next five to ten years will be interesting when it comes to Saudi Arabia and the entire Middle East.