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(12,597 posts)
14. Bond Market Wagers on Fed Rate Cut Crumble on Jobs Data Void -- the Fed will be without a lot of data it was
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 04:10 PM
Nov 19

expecting to see before their December 10 rate-setting meeting

Bloomberg, 11/19/25 152 PM CST
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-slash-bets-december-cut-190941316.html

Bond traders all but scrapped their bets on a December interest-rate cut after the government canceled the publication of the October employment report, leaving Federal Reserve officials without a key piece of economic data before their final meeting of the year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that some October jobs data would be rolled into a report to be published after the Fed’s December decision. The announcement prompted traders to scale back expectations for a quarter-point reduction, with odds now heavily pointing to policymakers keeping the benchmark rate on hold at the 3.75% to 4% range.

. . . Market sentiment had already been shifting toward a greater likelihood of no action at the Dec. 10 meeting, as several Fed officials have urged caution about reducing borrowing costs while inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. The updated BLS schedule leaves policymakers — and traders — lacking new evidence of labor market weakness, their justification for rate cuts in September and October.

. . . “We already knew that there wouldn’t be an October unemployment rate but the news that the November data will not get published until after the Fed meeting should be a disappointment for the market,” said Leah Traub, a portfolio manager at Lord Abbett & Co. “This reduces the probability of a cut given the divided FOMC.”


Next Fed rate meeting: Dec 10

So, until today's announcement it was expected we would see both the October payroll jobs numbers and November payroll job numbers on December 5 -- the first Friday of December. (Or sometime before then in the case of the October payroll jobs numbers)

Now we are told that both those will be released December 16 -- AFTER the Fed meeting.

It's long been known we would never see the October unemployment rate number.

It had been expected we would see the November unemployment rate number on December 5. Now it's scheduled for December 16. And by now you guessed it, AFTER the Fed meeting.

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Data must have looked bad BlueWaveNeverEnd Nov 19 #1
Seeing as how the previous BLS director was fired for publishing unflatterring data....... groundloop Nov 19 #7
Yup. Self-infliicted. BlueWavePsych Nov 19 #12
I would bet the numbers are so negative that the administration does not want to publish them. OLDMDDEM Nov 19 #2
Must be real bad.................. Lovie777 Nov 19 #3
Just too good to be true, right? marble falls Nov 19 #4
The whole administration is a f*cking bunch of lying basta*ds. NotHardly Nov 19 #5
Gee, I get off the computer and leave the room for a few minutes, and ... mahatmakanejeeves Nov 19 #6
Well the September report is still due to issue tomorrow BumRushDaShow Nov 19 #8
We've got that at least. On my first reading of your post, I thought THAT was the one that has been called off. NT mahatmakanejeeves Nov 19 #9
I know they had time to gather data for the September one BumRushDaShow Nov 19 #10
Actually, for Establishment Data, the October data will be published with the November data progree Nov 19 #11
That bad, damn ? republianmushroom Nov 19 #13
Bond Market Wagers on Fed Rate Cut Crumble on Jobs Data Void -- the Fed will be without a lot of data it was progree Nov 19 #14
Well Nvidia just announced they blew past market expectations BumRushDaShow Nov 19 #15
First it was GPUs and electricity, now AI is eating up the memory industry ((causing memory prices to rise, progree Nov 19 #16
I used to build my own PCs about 25 years ago as a "side hobby" BumRushDaShow Thursday #18
I am truly impressed. I'm frightened to death to take the case off my desktop tower computer progree Thursday #19
Regarding that SIM issue BumRushDaShow Thursday #21
Nice work there. A Badger Thursday #17
Thanks :) progree Thursday #20
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