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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
14. The whole set of converging crises are starting to lock together now.
Tue Aug 27, 2013, 10:28 AM
Aug 2013

Last edited Tue Aug 27, 2013, 01:21 PM - Edit history (1)

The potential for a human dieback beginning by 2030 is rising dramatically as these crises all come together:

  • The Arctic Amplification effect of climate change is disrupting the polar jet stream and causing weather destabilization through the Northern Hemisphere. This is already disrupting agricultural output.
  • Potential for methane bursts in the Arctic is rising as the region warms. This could induce runaway warming;
  • Ocean acidification will have multiple ecological impacts, from loss of biodiversity to coral and phytoplankton loss; There is a potential for additional warming due to decreased dimethylsulphide release from the oceans;
  • Fresh water supplies are declining;
  • Soil fertility is declining;
  • The oceans are almost fished out;
  • Terrestrial species are going extinct at a ferocious rate, with a rising possibility that a vital keystone species might join them;
  • World oil and food prices are high and still rising;
  • Some oil-exporting nations are already destabilizing politically as their resources run out (e.g. Egypt);
  • Fossil fuel use is still increasing.
IMO there is little realistic chance that the world will be able to resolve any of these problems, let alone the entire interlocking predicament. This is largely because of the evolutionary bequest of human risk perception, social-conformity bias, and growth orientation, all of which are a result of our evolutionary past - they have been programmed into our neural behavior circuits by natural selection over hundreds of thousands of years in response to distant past, not present, environmental and social conditions.

The main human evolutionary advantage has been our incredible analytical intellect. It has allowed us to become the undisputed, indisputable dominant species on the planet. This was possible because our intelligence operates as a limit-removal mechanism, not a limit-acceptance mechanism. Whenever we run into a roadblock to growth in any domain, out evolved response is to figure out a way around it. We are good at seeing problems and opportunities, and very, very poor at seeing consequences. It is virtually impossible for us to see a problem and not try to find a way to solve it.

These evolutionary traits are not easily circumvented at the species level, individual examples notwithstanding. As a result, I really don't think we're going to get out of this one - matters have long since passed our ability to control them consciously. Indeed, most of our previous problem-solving attempts have either made matters worse by enabling yet more growth, or have merely kicked the can down the road a little.

Perhaps it's time we showed a little humility in the face of Mother Nature, and admit that we've painted ourselves into an evolutionary corner.
"We'll get right to work cooking up some new, improved lies about this." - Republicons, Inc. Berlum Aug 2013 #1
They have no idea what they are doing. If the phytoplankton dies so do we! Dustlawyer Aug 2013 #2
I give us 17 more years until mass human die-offs begin. AAO Aug 2013 #3
Nah, I doubt THAT. AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #9
Water and food scarcity, caused by Global Warming (great droughts) will cause mass human die-offs AAO Aug 2013 #12
The whole set of converging crises are starting to lock together now. GliderGuider Aug 2013 #14
•Terrestrial species are going extinct at a ferocious rate, with a rising possibility that a vital AAO Aug 2013 #21
Bees are the possibility I was thinking of, for sure. GliderGuider Aug 2013 #22
And all this Karma has broken in the last 20 years or so... AAO Aug 2013 #23
Regarding intelligence... GliderGuider Aug 2013 #27
If they are disappearing, they will continue to do so. No reason they wouldn't, that I can think of. silvershadow Aug 2013 #6
Acidification has already hurt oyster farms in Oregon. WHEN CRABS ROAR Aug 2013 #4
It mentions extinctions 55 million years ago, caseymoz Aug 2013 #5
one can only imagine the circumstances for those left to pick up the pieces Supersedeas Aug 2013 #7
We need to know how and why life survived then. caseymoz Aug 2013 #8
And one admittedly rather less severe(if perhaps faster, maybe) than PETM, at that. AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #10
Palms already grow in Scotland and Alaska NickB79 Aug 2013 #11
Okay, but these were NOT the kind of palms I was referring to. AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #17
I don't know. caseymoz Aug 2013 #13
It's really hard for ME, personally, to explain..... AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #16
But all the average forecasts I've heard caseymoz Aug 2013 #18
True, but the newest projections have gone a lot farther than that, apparently. AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #19
always looking for the good news when it comes to climate change, aren't you? CreekDog Aug 2013 #24
In all honesty, is that really such a bad thing? AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #26
Oh yeah, those Canadian and Siberian breadbaskets NickB79 Aug 2013 #20
Tell that to the guy who originally brought it up, not me. n/t AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #25
"The Perfect Storm" keeps building. Uncle Joe Aug 2013 #15
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