Russian president to attend informal talks with CIS leaders

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9. Moscow not interested in long-term guarantees for Lukashenko

06.05.2014
President Lukashenko’s efforts were in vain – the Kremlin has neither supported his (and the Kazakh President’s) proposal to create a single energy market, nor to abolish oil duty exemptions. Belarus has been prompted to start bilateral negations with Russia on oil supplies, putting her economic, foreign policy, and military independence at further risk. With each new stage, Eurasian integration fails to bring any financial benefits for Belarus, the costs only rise.
...

The SEEC Summit in Minsk was the last decisive trilateral meeting, during which the presidential ‘troika’ was anticipating to close all controversial issues before signing the Eurasian Economic Community’s founding treaty in Astana on May 29th. The Eurasian Economic Community’s founding treaty is scheduled to take effect on January 1st, 2015. However, during the Summit, the allies could not agree on oil duty exemptions, the most sensitive issue for Belarus.

If exempt from paying oil duties, Belarus would earn additional USD 3-4 bln. The Belarusian government could use this money to minimise risks during the 2015 presidential campaign, amid reduced social guarantees for the population.
...

When the time comes, the Belarusian government will sign the EEC founding treaty in a timely manner and on the Kremlin’s terms. Moscow reserves the right to control Minsk’s foreign policy by providing ‘hands-on’ support to Belarus, i.e. in small doses at the last moment.

more...http://belarusinfocus.info/p/6270

That last paragraph seems a bit puzzling.

With the latest planned signing of the EEU on May 29th, a failed Ukrainian federation vote, however invalid, plus any overt military action in Ukraine, would have overshadowed the signing. Any later signing would make the Jan 1 start date for the EEU nearly impossible. An invasion would have made it difficult for Lukashenko to proceed in particular, especially since he's courting EU cooperation and could have simply claim the EEU details were still incomplete. Lukashenko may be a dictator, but he's somewhat constrained and the latest revelations about the Crimean vote can't have helped.

Plus there was this, which certainly would rattle cages in Minsk if it continued to be a topic:

SBU has evidence of Russia's involvement in preparation of 'referendum' in eastern Ukraine with already known results
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has received irrefutable evidence of the Russian side's preparing for and coordinating measures on the holding in the eastern regions of Ukraine of the so-called "referendum" on the creation of the "Donetsk People's Republic," with already known results, the SBU press center reported on Wednesday.

SBU released the audio recording of a conversation between the leader of the Russian Unity movement, Alexander Barkashov (Moscow), and the leader of the unregistered Orthodox Donbass organization, Dmytro Boitsov (Donetsk).

During the conversation Boitsov asks for Russian military support for the successful holding of the so-called referendum on May 11. Barkashov, in turn, proposes falsifying the results of the referendum.

SBU also released audio files with subtitles in Russian, English and German.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/203821.html

Obviously a glorious victory and coronation in Astana were preferred.