Remember this? Exit Polls Made Easy

[garybeck]

Exit Polls Made Easy
Something's fishy, and it ain't just Ohio

by Gary Beckwith
January 31, 2005

It's been said that exit polls are unreliable and that they can be interpreted many ways. But a look at the numbers provides some solid information anyone can understand, that is beyond interpretation.

These three facts can easily be derived from the exit poll data:

In 43 out of 51 states (inculding DC), the "official" vote totals differ from the exit polls in the direction favoring Bush.

Bush's victory exceeds the mathematical margin of error in 15 states. Kerry's victory does not exceed the margin of error in any state.

Exit polls were accurate in 2000.

In short, the gap between the exit polls and official vote (nearly all in the direction favoring Bush) is extremely large. Just how large?

The question that statisticians would ask is, "What is the probability that this could happen by random chance?"

Inquiring minds would like to know, and it's not just statisticians. It's the patriotic folks who care about the state of democracy in the United States of America.

Chances of exit polls being off in Bush's favor in 43 out of 51 states

Exit polls are not 100% accurate, but their errors should happen randomly. They should be off favoring Bush and Kerry fairly evenly. But they were off in Bush's favor in 43 out of 51 states.

According to statistician "Tia," the chances of this happening by random chance are 1 in 2.9 million*.

Do I smell smoke?

Chances of Bush's victory exceeding the margin of error in 15 states

...snip

more:

http://solarbus.org/election/articles/0130-exitpolls.html