Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
56. Poland counts the cost of losing millions of its workers
Thu Dec 25, 2014, 09:18 PM
Dec 2014
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/05/uk-europe-demographics-poland-idUKKCN0JJ0KT20141205

"I'm staying here!," reads a grime-covered slogan on the side of a train in Opole, south-west Poland. It's a legacy of a local campaign aimed at discouraging young people from moving abroad. The campaign didn't work. After 1.2 million of its citizens migrated in the ten years since Poland joined the European Union, the country is counting the economic and social cost. Though its workers may have eased demographic difficulties in ageing countries like Britain and Germany, Poland now has a population crisis of its own.

Those who left were predominantly the young and economically active. For a while the billions of euros they sent back helped the economy - remittances were worth 2 percent of the country's GDP in 2009 alone - and enabled it to avoid recession but that money is drying up as they choose to settle permanently abroad. As a result Poland's social security system is creaking badly. The country will spend almost a third of its budget in 2015 subsidising pensions - a ratio only likely to increase as the population ages and grandchildren are born abroad.

"To put it very simply, millions of workers emigrating and not paying anything in means no pensions for millions of retirees," said Janusz Kobeszko, analyst at the Sobieski Institute, a Warsaw-based think tank.


Demographic projections show Poland will lose nearly 3 million people in the next 25 years, partly through migration and partly because women who leave Poland are more likely to have children than those who stay, official data shows.
While Poland's pensions crisis looms, a more immediate migration-related problem is presenting itself: shortages of labour at home. In the Opole region, which has lost an estimated 10 to 15 percent of its population due to migration - the highest rate in the country - local businesses cannot find construction workers, carers, security guards, salespeople and cleaners.

One solution would be to welcome immigrants from elsewhere, perhaps from neighbouring Ukraine - so far immigrants make up less than 1 percent of the population. But despite the difficulty companies have in finding workers, unemployment is still high, at 11.3 percent, because the jobs on offer are low-skilled and low-paid. And that makes encouraging more immigrants politically risky, says Marta Jaroszewicz, analyst at the Centre for Eastern Studies, a Warsaw-based think tank. "Politicians don't want to talk about this, as voters think we can't afford immigrants," she said.

Similar patterns and problems are occurring all across ex-Communist countries of eastern Europe which are now EU members. In particular, Bulgaria's population is projected to shrink by a quarter come 2060. There too, migration is a major factor.


EURO-ORPHANS

Poland's dwindling population has brought social problems as well, says Aleksandra Walas, head of a social research centre in Opole, whose office is wedged in between a tax company for emigrants and a counter issuing documents for claiming child benefits abroad. In 2013, there were over 10,000 of what she describes as "euro-orphans" in the region - children with one or more parent working abroad. That number has risen 8 percent since 2008. Walas's team has also identified around 1,000 elderly people in the region who have been abandoned by their emigrating families, something she warns will become more of an issue as the country's remaining population gets older. Pawel Landwojtowicz, a family counsellor from Opole who is also a Catholic priest, said working abroad is a factor in around 60 percent of the cases he encounters.

"I've seen traditional, multi generational families torn apart by emigration, never to quite recover."


Halina, a hairdresser from the Opole region, says her family is better off financially because her husband has been a construction worker in Berlin for nearly two decades. But she adds there is no doubt it has put a strain on them.

"I've had to be both mother and father to my two kids, and my son used to resent his dad for not being around."


Poland's government offers guidance to people thinking about coming back, but former Prime Minister Donald Tusk's plans to attract large number of emigrants back with tax breaks and soft loans did not materialise. Tusk is now working in Brussels. Those tracking Polish migration say that the outward flow will not be reversed as long as wages are significantly higher in other parts of Europe. A recent study showed that only a half of Polish emigrants were planning to return home. Since 2004, some 70,000 Poles have taken up British and German passports.

"Let's be realistic. They're not coming back," said Jacek Suski, head of the labour office in Opole. "Unless it's to lay their bones to rest."

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Yet another Wassail Song, with mini-lecture Demeter Dec 2014 #1
Dow Squeaks Higher as 'Santa Rally' Continues Demeter Dec 2014 #2
Mark Fiore Sends Greetings of the Season: Driving while brown, and furry Demeter Dec 2014 #3
Mark Fiore DemReadingDU Dec 2014 #13
The first one was great. Thanks for that. NT mahatmakanejeeves Dec 2014 #87
Christmas Economics: Challenging Some Common Beliefs By Laura Birg Demeter Dec 2014 #4
Merchant Banker - Monty Python's The Flying Circus Demeter Dec 2014 #5
It’s a Wonderful Life, Comrade Michael Winship Demeter Dec 2014 #6
21 Ayn Rand Christmas Cards Demeter Dec 2014 #7
Actually, I always thought "Potterville" looked a lot more interesting Warpy Dec 2014 #12
Is Moral Offsetting™ Right for You? by Thomas Rodham Wells Demeter Dec 2014 #8
Why Scrooge is an anti-capitalist hero, bravely resisting the commercialisation of Christmas Demeter Dec 2014 #9
Chinese Banks Hemorrhaging Deposits, 1st Quarterly Drop Since 1999; Banks Offer iPhones, Even Cars Demeter Dec 2014 #10
I have a feeling it won't be pretty on Friday Warpy Dec 2014 #11
Holiday happiness to all of you and a musical offering bread_and_roses Dec 2014 #14
thanks for that, bread. I wasn't into opera until recently. A family member is training to be an antigop Dec 2014 #47
MF Global Holdings to pay $100 million fine in CFTC settlement Eugene Dec 2014 #15
Joyeux Noel! Demeter Dec 2014 #16
Elizabeth Warren’s real beef with Antonio Weiss: What her fight against him is actually about Demeter Dec 2014 #17
Thomas Piketty’s “Capital”, summarised in four paragraphs Demeter Dec 2014 #18
Oil Crash: Don’t Believe the Happy Clatter By Pam Martens and Russ Martens Demeter Dec 2014 #19
You Thought The Saudis Were Kidding? ILARGI AUTOMATIC EARTH Demeter Dec 2014 #20
A visit from Janet Yellen Posted by Macro Man Demeter Dec 2014 #21
The Ghost of Christmas Past Demeter Dec 2014 #22
Let It Blow! Let It Blow! Let It Blow!!! DemReadingDU Dec 2014 #43
And that is the Ghost of Christmas Present, at last Demeter Dec 2014 #44
Saudis Tell Shale Industry It Will Break Them, Plans to Keep Pumping Even at $20 a Barrel Demeter Dec 2014 #23
It Looks Like US Retailers Are Just Barely Going To Meet Holiday Expectations xchrom Dec 2014 #24
Russian Ruble Strengthens In Thin Trade xchrom Dec 2014 #25
To all who wander into this discussion-- Demeter Dec 2014 #26
Tomorrow is the Feast of St. Stephen Demeter Dec 2014 #27
I've always liked that carol bread_and_roses Dec 2014 #71
I hate those "me too" posts, but me too. NT mahatmakanejeeves Dec 2014 #88
Sony Hack: Clooney Says Movie is about Snowden, Not Journalism Demeter Dec 2014 #28
The CIA engineered oil glut to bring down Putin and Maduro, by Wayne Madsen Demeter Dec 2014 #29
Wow! I'm not surprised. Good read. n/t Hotler Dec 2014 #67
I'm not saying it's true, but those crazy guys at CIA will do anything, repeatedly Demeter Dec 2014 #69
How Putin Stopped the Ruble's Collapse Demeter Dec 2014 #30
Global Headwinds No Match for Dow at 18,000 Milestone Demeter Dec 2014 #31
Greece to the Eurozone’s Rescue: Why the Troika Should Forgive Greece’s Debt Demeter Dec 2014 #32
BofA Fired Hong Kong Banker to Avoid Paying Bonus, Judge Rules xchrom Dec 2014 #33
$500,000 won't even pay for 7 years of lawyering Demeter Dec 2014 #41
Wells Fargo, HSBC Among Banks Sued Over Subprime Securities xchrom Dec 2014 #34
How the U.S. Government Botched Its Multibillion-Dollar Plan to Beat Childhood Disease xchrom Dec 2014 #35
BECAUSE they were asking the WRONG QUESTIONS! Demeter Dec 2014 #42
Bulls Return to Russia ETF as Ruble’s Decline Halted xchrom Dec 2014 #36
Oil Slides as U.S. Supplies Jump Most in Two Months xchrom Dec 2014 #37
Kuroda Calls on Japan Inc to Embrace Shift to Inflation: Economy xchrom Dec 2014 #38
Obama Imports and Immunizes Banksters Who Donate to the Democratic Party WILLIAM K BLACK Demeter Dec 2014 #39
Billion Dollar Surveillance Blimp to Launch over Maryland By Dan Froomkin Demeter Dec 2014 #40
IMF, World Bank Halt Lending to Ukraine – Franklin Templeton $4 Billion Ukraine Bet Goes Bad Demeter Dec 2014 #45
COMMENT BY Lune December 16, 2014 at 12:45 pm Demeter Dec 2014 #46
OK, I just had to post this....Sheldon sings Christmas carol antigop Dec 2014 #48
Thank you for broadening my knowledge base Demeter Dec 2014 #49
Oh, Demeter..."Big Bang Theory" is the ONLY thing I watch on TV. Nerds rock! nt antigop Dec 2014 #50
antigop--I come from generations of engineers (nerds before the word existed) Demeter Dec 2014 #52
as do I, Demeter. I think they rock. nt antigop Dec 2014 #53
This message was self-deleted by its author kickysnana Dec 2014 #58
You guys drove trains? Fuddnik Dec 2014 #80
Lionel--O gage Demeter Dec 2014 #84
Tuna tie-up: Chicken of the Sea owner buys Bumble Bee for $1.5bn Demeter Dec 2014 #51
Credit-Default Swaps Get Activist New Look antigop Dec 2014 #54
Took the Kid to See Robin Williams' Last Film; Museum 3 Demeter Dec 2014 #55
Poland counts the cost of losing millions of its workers Demeter Dec 2014 #56
Revealed 30 years on: secret role of Henry Kissinger in Bhopal tragedy Demeter Dec 2014 #57
Russia's Ruble Interference Is Working xchrom Dec 2014 #59
Interference? That's a rather judgmental word for a sovereign nation with its own currency Demeter Dec 2014 #61
Russia's Finance Minister Says The Economy Could Shrink By 4% Next Year xchrom Dec 2014 #60
And Russia would STILL be ahead of the EU and the USA-Canada Demeter Dec 2014 #62
Looks Like we are going into extra innings on this thread, folks Demeter Dec 2014 #63
Today is Boxing Day (December 26th) Demeter Dec 2014 #64
We are now into the 12 Days of Christmas Demeter Dec 2014 #65
Everybody riffs off this one! Demeter Dec 2014 #66
I'm going out to pump up the economy---be back later today here Demeter Dec 2014 #68
This message was self-deleted by its author Demeter Dec 2014 #70
I like this group! For our friends in Ukraine Demeter Dec 2014 #72
Did you know there's a religious aspect to this whole mess in Ukraine? MattSh Dec 2014 #75
Okay, you can't just post and run like that Demeter Dec 2014 #76
Why not? OK... If you insist... MattSh Dec 2014 #82
Okay, it's complicated and has roots going back centuries Demeter Dec 2014 #85
Early Efforts to Inflate the DJIA another 100 pts. have been thwarted Demeter Dec 2014 #73
Michigan’s Population Creeping Up As Autos Recover Demeter Dec 2014 #74
“Summer” Rerun: So Where, Exactly, Did Lehman’s $130 Billion Go? Demeter Dec 2014 #77
How a Top Obama Crony Moved From Idaho To a $2 Million Washington Estate Demeter Dec 2014 #78
AN UPDATE ON THE 111 YEARS OF FLORIDA CONCENTRATION CAMP FOR BOYS: Dozier Demeter Dec 2014 #79
U.S. retailers likely to just meet holiday sales forecasts Demeter Dec 2014 #81
Petrobras hit with U.S. class action suit over $98 billion in securities Eugene Dec 2014 #83
WEE are moving on to the Weekend Thread Demeter Dec 2014 #86
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Economy»Weekend Economists Silent...»Reply #56