The economy, and inflation, are revving up at a terrible time for Biden

[progree]

12. Inflation in the last month and last 3 months, graphs and all. PCE, CPI, PPI. Regular and Core

Last edited Mon Apr 15, 2024, 02:46 AM - Edit history (2)

I've been seeing some mischaracterizations of the recent inflation situation, so here is a summary table followed by the graphs.

I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.

The "1 month" number is the change from February to March, expressed as an annualized number (for the PCE it's the change from January to February; the PCE folks don't do March until near the end of April).

"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"

"Core" is the regular with food and energy removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation)

3/29/24 PCE (Fed's favorite inflation measure)

REGULAR 3 month: 3.4%, REGULAR 1 month: 4.1%; CORE 3 month: 3.5%, Core 1 month: 3.2%;

4/10/24 CPI-Consumer(retail) inflation

REGULAR 3 month: 4.6%, REGULAR 1 month: 4.6%; CORE 3 month: 4.5%, Core 1 month: 4.4%;

4/11/24 PPI (Wholesale prices)

REGULAR 3 month: 4.4%, REGULAR 1 month: 1.9%; CORE 3 month: 4.7%, Core 1 month: 2.5%;

Edited to Add:
Average real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings are up over the past 2 years and are above the pre-pandemic level:
. . . # Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
. . . # Real average hourly earnings of private sector workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

And now the graphs, in the following order:

* Core CPI and Regular CPI

* Core PCE and Regular PCE (Core PCE is the Fed's favorite for projecting FUTURE inflation)

* Wholesale inflation - Core PPI and Regular PPI

CORE CPI

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E



The Regular aka Headline CPI
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0



CORE PCE through February that came out 3/29/24
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

This is the one that the Fed weighs most heavily. The Fed weigh the PCE more heavily than the CPI. And in both cases, they weigh the CORE measures higher than the regular headline measures for projecting FUTURE inflation



Regular PCE through February that came out 3/29/24
PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI


WHOLESALE INFLATION (PPI - the Producer Price Index)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

As for which core PPI measure, since the BLS highlights the one below in its reporting (as opposed to the one without food and energy), then I guess I should do likewise.

BLS Data Series CORE PPI (excluding food, energy, trade services): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116



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BLS Data Series Regular PPI ( includes "everything" ): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4