“This Is What a Holy Sh*t Moment for Global Warming Looks Like”

[happyslug]

13. With th subsequet severe shortages of fuel, fighting will be minimal

You have to understand most oil refineries are on the coast, thus even if we can still pump oil (More and more oil is from deep off shore locations), could we refine the oil? Shipping of oil also comes into play, not so much as to actual sailing the ocean, but loading and unloading the tankers. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does a full collapse and world wide sea levels raise 20 feet, some of this ability will survive but at a much reduced rate. Russia, whose refineries would be the least affected, would have all the fuel it wants to do what ever it wants. Europe will have to turn to Russia for its fuel, for the Middle East would be a mess.

The US, whose oil production has increased in recent years, do to not only fracking oil but deep sea oil, will be the most affected. The US refineries are the one most threatened by any sea level raise (That is the problem having a coast line that is retreating from a center, you end up with low coast lines).

Sidenote: The West Coast of the US tends to raise very quickly, do to the fact it is being push up as the North American Plate floats over the Pacific Plate. Southern Europe tends to have a coast much like the US West Coast, do to the North African Plate pushing northward. In any sea level raise, London and the Netherlands would be the most affected, to far from Southern Europe to be lifted by the African Plate, and to far from Norway to be affected by that raise in mountains (The Highlands of Scotland is the remains of that part of the Appalachians Mountains that stayed with Europe, when Europe and North America broke apart).

Appalachian Mountains side note: The Appalachian Mountains are believed to have been one of the tallest mountain ranges ever, but then all but eroded away just before Europe and North America broke apart. The mountains were raised again at that time period, by mechanism not yet understood, but then divided itself since that time, first with the Highlands of Scotland going along with Europe and then the Ozarks separating itself from the rest with the raise of the Mississippi river.

If you want to see what happens with a 20 foot (about 7 meters) raise is world wide sea levels:

http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

Just look at the above map for Lousianna and Texas and then look at the following map:



And Chart:



And you will see just under 50% of US oil refining capacities is on the coast in areas that would be affected by a 20 foot increase in world wide sea levels:

http://oilrefinerysystemoftheworld.blogspot.com/2012/05/us-oil-refineries-map.html

If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would collapse, the US would be under pressure within about a month. At first the US will have to force all the refineries on the coast to refine as much oil as possible, till they are under water, this may reduce prices for about a month. Then those refineries will have to close and there goes just under 50% of US refining capacity. Price will then jump (Prices may jump from day one based on speculators buying up all the refined oil they can, a lot of people will be filling gas cans for later use).

It will take years to rebuild that capacity (and it may never be rebuilt, much of that capacity goes to refining oil that is shipped back overseas mostly to Mexico and South America, thus it may be more profitable to rebuilt the refineries in Venezuela, where the heavy crude of the future is).

Now, the world has survived at least one other period where the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed, thus it may be what we need as a signal before we really do ourselves harm.