“This Is What a Holy Sh*t Moment for Global Warming Looks Like”

[LouisvilleDem]

17. Have anything more recent?

Yes, the paper was published in 2011, but in analyzing the difference between observations and predictions it quotes mostly from papers published in the 2004-2009 time frame. Given that it is fairly easy to compare global temperature predictions to observations, I'm not sure if I trust a paper written in 2011 that doesn't even mention the pause in air temperature increases. They quote from a 2009 study that found that model predictions of global air temperatures were consistent with observations. However, by 2011 it was becoming obvious that the models were running hot, and the divergence has only increased since then.

Thanks though. For some reason I had thought that sea level predictions were pretty accurate, but it turns out they were way too low. I thought there were more examples of things where projections were more pessimistic than observations, but it seems that only applies to predictions of increased extreme weather and predictions of global temperatures.