Sufficient supplies have reached Ukraine from the west to blunt the recent Russian offensive. Long a military axiom: soldiers win battles, logistics win wars. At the beginning of WW II, we supplied the Brits, at great cost, to keep them in the fight. Later on, we supplied the Soviets with vast supplies all kinds so that their soldiers could go out and die for Mother Russia.
Putin knows that the Russian army is a spent force. They can not even begin to replace their material losses. World sanctions, despite Chinese and North Korean attempts to counter the sanctions, are curtailing Russian ability to manufacture weapons. Sanctions are also taking a big bite out of oil revenue. The Russian oil industry is falling apart and the general economy is not far behind. Some of the other captive peoples are becoming restive. And, last but not least, Putin is restoring the old Russian tradition of arresting high ranking officers to cover the leaders failures. In short, it is a downhill spiral and Putin knows it.
Putin also now knows that NATO will continue to supply Ukraine with modern western weapons in ever larger quantities. His army can't compete. At this moment, Russia still occupies a large part of Ukraine, but that won't last much longer.
Putin must start the negotiations now, while he still has a few chips on his side of the table. The pendulum is swinging toward the Ukrainians and they know it. After what they have suffered, I don't think they are yet willing to cede any of Putin's ill gotten gains. Putin is in a very tough situation of his own creation.
I think the negotiation ploy is a tell. Putin would really like to keep things stable until November to see if his boy becomes president. He has doubts that he can wait that long, hence negotiations.
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