How Putin's War Ends: Ruble Collapse - Jason Jay Smart

[TexasTowelie]

Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is shifting into a phase defined not by military breakthroughs but by financial strain inside Russia itself. The country’s top banker, German Gref of Sberbank, has stated that the current ruble rate is far from its true level, identifying a fair range of roughly 100 to 105 rubles for one dollar. From today’s stronger rate, that implies a potential slide of about 34 percent. A decline of that scale functions as a hidden tax on Russian wages, pensions, and savings, allowing the state to redirect value toward sustaining the war effort.

This emerging currency crisis is linked directly to battlefield realities. Long-range Ukrainian strikes have hit refineries nearly 1,000 kilometers, about 620 miles, inside Russia. Damage to these facilities cuts into Moscow’s revenue stream and magnifies the fiscal pressure already visible in Russia’s public data.

At the same time, Russia’s economic dependence on China is deepening. Beijing purchases discounted Russian energy and supplies machinery and controlled goods at sharply higher prices. Research shows that Chinese-controlled exports to Russia have risen in price far more steeply than similar goods for other markets. A weaker ruble amplifies this imbalance and increases Russia’s reliance on a single dominant buyer, limiting its strategic options.

The broader picture for Western observers is clear. Combined economic pressure and Ukrainian strikes are straining the financial foundations of the Kremlin’s war. Russia’s currency and budget are now central to understanding how the conflict moves forward.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro
01:12 - Support Ukraine's Frontline: Drones for the Fight in Sumy
02:46 - Critical Blow: Ukraine's Drone Strikes on Russia's Oil Refineries
03:30 - The Ruble Crisis: Top Banker German Gref Tells the Truth
05:06 - Putin's Impossible Choice: War Survival vs. a Strong Ruble
07:12 - Sanctions, Oil, and War: Russia's Economic Collapse
09:23 - Putin's Costly Ally: China's Massive Markup on War Goods
10:38 - The Looming Banking Crisis: Cascading Defaults Warning
13:06 - Outro