Black Voters in NH Unconvinced by Sanders

[Gothmog]

88. The polling cited in OP is consistent with this polling

And Sanders is still not polling well with African American or Latino voters and so maybe he needs to change what he is doing http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/poll-sanders-gains-stop-short-of-minorities.html#

Team Sanders is certainly focused on the problem, with a variety of campaign efforts focused on minority voters in the works. The talking points they are putting out there, however, are less than convincing, as I learned as a guest on the public radio show "To the Point" yesterday, when I heard a Sanders supporter argue that an Iowa win would greatly boost Bernie's African-American support just like it did for Obama in South Carolina in 2008. The idea that Sanders's potential to win the black vote in South Carolina is analogous to that of the first African-American president does not pass the laugh test. Still, any early-state win for Sanders, even in exceptionally honkified Iowa and New Hampshire, will likely create some sort of generalized bounce. The question is how high, and how loyal minority voters prove to be to Hillary Clinton, her husband, and her implicit ally Barack Obama. It's worth remembering that she defeated Barack Obama handily among Latinos in 2008, and that Bill Clinton enjoyed robust support in both communities.

Monmouth University has a new national poll out that casts some fascinating, if very preliminary, light on this subject. Compared to its poll in December, Monmouth shows Sanders making pretty big gains: Clinton was up 59-to-26 last month, and only 52-to-37 now. But among black and Latino voters, Clinton has actually expanded her lead from 61-to-18 to 71-to-21. In other words, a legitimate "Sanders surge" nationally has coincided with a deterioration of his standing with the voters he will most need for a breakthrough after the first two contests of the primary season.

Sanders is actually losing ground with African American voters and Sanders' current tactics are not evidently working.

Sanders will not be the nominee unless he can expand his base of supporters. Super Tuesday will be a long day for Sanders. Vermont is one of the last states with 90+% white voting populations