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2016 Postmortem

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Recursion

(56,582 posts)
Tue Mar 15, 2016, 05:37 AM Mar 2016

1332 pledged delegates are assigned so far. Can we all just agree on the arithmetic? [View all]

The supers are going to do what they're going to do. Just in terms of making it to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates, there are currently 1332 of 4051 assigned, or just south of one third.

Of those 1332, Clinton has earned 775, and Sanders 552, for a 223-delegate lead, with 2719 delegates still outstanding.

To win the majority of pledged delegates, Sanders will need to win 2026 total, or 1474 more than now. That means he has to win 54% of the remaining delegates to hit the convention with a majority of pledged delegates.

We can argue later about whether that is doable or not*, but for right now: does anybody disagree with my arithmetic, that Sanders needs 54% of the remaining pledged delegates to hit the convention with a majority of pledged delegates?

* and, hell, for that matter I'm agnostic on whether earning a majority of pledged delegates means that the supers some how "have to" vote for you; if that's the case we should just get rid of the system.

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