2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)Here's the flaw in the super delegate argument by Sanders: [View all]
Hillary Clinton current has 1770 pledged delegates. To gain the 2026 pledged delegates she needs to have a majority of pledged delegates, she needs only 256 additional pledged delegates.
In the remaining primaries there are 781 delegates left to be allocated. 256 of those is roughly 33% of 781. In order for Bernie Sanders to prevent her getting those 256 delegates, he will need to win 67% of the vote across all of those remaining primaries.
Here's the problem: Just in California, 475 pledged delegates are at stake. If California is tied, she'll get 237 of the 256 she needs. It is impossible that Bernie will win California by a 2/3 margin. That simply will not happen.
New Jersey is likely to be a solid win for her, as is DC. She'll split the vote in the other states by some ratio. But, in each, she will get additional delegates to add to her total.
Hillary Clinton WILL have the majority of the pledged delegates as of June 8. There's almost no way that doesn't happen.
So, there's the super delegate dilemma. Bernie Sanders will not get the majority of pledged delegates. That's going to be impossible, due to the Democratic Party's proportional allocation of delegates. The super delegates will not flip to the candidate with a minority of pledged delegates in numbers large enough to push Bernie over the top at the convention. They are long-time Democratic elected officials and party leaders. They have relationships with and loyalties to Clinton that will not be overcome by any candidate with a minority of pledged delegates. That simply will not happen.
Just for grins, let's assume that Hillary ends up with just 2026 pledged delegates, the minimum number for a majority. To win at the convention, she will need only 2383 total votes. To get there, she'd need just 357 of the super delegate's votes, out of 714. There is not a chance in Hell that she will get less than that if she has the majority of pledged delegates. Not a chance.
It's a party thing. The super delegates are Democratic Party loyalists.
The reality is that Hillary will have more than the minimum majority of pledged delegates. How many more, we will know on June 14. The reality is that she already has 520 super delegates who have indicated that they plan to vote for Hillary. Bernie's dream is not going to come true. There's no way for it to come true. It won't happen.
Sorry, folks.