2016 Postmortem

Hassin Bin Sober

(27,217 posts)

68. Even Nate Silver cautioned a couple days ahead of the election that HRC's lead was pretty thin...

Sat Nov 26, 2016, 04:39 PM

Nov 2016

... in key battleground states.

When I started looking at it from that point of view, I got the same uneasy feeling I had in 2004 when I read about all the anti-gay legislation that was on ballots all around the country.

Silver basically said her lead was easily overcome with polling assumption errors, if any.

I think the response here was "Fuck Nate Silver look at Sam Wang!!"

Hillary had terrible unfavorable numbers for a Presidential candidate going in.

I don't think the polls accounted for the white hot hatred repigs have for the Clintons. I was teasing my neighbor's dad (from rural downstate Illinois ) about upcoming Hillary Presidency and he went in to a Vince Foster Benghazi type tirade - I mean I knew he hated the Clintons but I had no idea he bought in to all that bullshit. I mentioned to my partner later that I hope I'm wrong but we may be in for a big fucking surprise. People like him would crawl over broken glass to get to the polls to vote against a Clinton.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

106 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Wisconsin 4-month run-up: Clinton leads by 6 points ... until Nov. 8: [View all] ucrdem Nov 2016 OP

The polls were wrong. Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #1

Were the 300,000 votes thrown out for wrong id also wrong? Tiggeroshii Nov 2016 #5

No they weren't. Private companies programmed the machines before 1 off was ever cast onecaliberal Nov 2016 #81

Which polls were wrong? ucrdem Nov 2016 #6

As I stated before, the polls weren't wrong. Just the data sets which were used in these data sets Exilednight Nov 2016 #11

Okay but didn't Trump's numbers in the same polls use the same data sets? ucrdem Nov 2016 #46

No, they used some shit from mars... they pulled DPutins LV out of their asses and threw them on uponit7771 Nov 2016 #52

Yes, every single one of those polls were wrong according to the msm... all the polling science uponit7771 Nov 2016 #48

duh Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #89

Polls couldn't be that wrong radius777 Nov 2016 #65

Even Nate Silver cautioned a couple days ahead of the election that HRC's lead was pretty thin... Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2016 #68

Yep SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #75

Or worse... Bob41213 Nov 2016 #105

Odds are just that. Odds. LisaL Nov 2016 #76

Yeah, Silver had the Cubs at 1 in 4 chance of winning the Series. Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2016 #80

No candidate in 50 years has lost with her type of leads radius777 Nov 2016 #104

You've got to be kidding. Were you not around for the primaries? Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #90

not that wrong MFM008 Nov 2016 #78

People used the wrong data when putting together these charts. Exilednight Nov 2016 #2

Isn't polling a SCIENCE cilla4progress Nov 2016 #7

Yes. But like any science it depends on the data sets that are used. Exilednight Nov 2016 #8

Yes and they worked before treestar Nov 2016 #10

It's NOT the polls that were wrong. It was the people interpreting the poll numbers. Exilednight Nov 2016 #20

It's most certainly ALSO an ART FBaggins Nov 2016 #15

Add to that, polling could potentially influence the results itself. LisaL Nov 2016 #16

Absolutely FBaggins Nov 2016 #17

That was my concern and I believe some of it did take place. LisaL Nov 2016 #19

I "thought" that they were safe too. FBaggins Nov 2016 #21

Campaign was presumably getting the same polling results showing these states were safe. LisaL Nov 2016 #26

So where was Trump getting his polling from? FBaggins Nov 2016 #57

if they had rigging operations in those states radius777 Nov 2016 #63

One didn't need polls to know she wasn't doing all that well with rural white voters. LisaL Nov 2016 #77

I agree 100% SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #35

Yes, but as the charts show cilla4progress Nov 2016 #18

First I would argue is that they weren't consistent. Exilednight Nov 2016 #22

They do their own calling FBaggins Nov 2016 #24

No they're not. They're a social science. There's no art involved. Exilednight Nov 2016 #23

There is a lot of guessing involved. LisaL Nov 2016 #25

There's no guessing involved, but there is a margin of error. Exilednight Nov 2016 #32

No guessing involved? LisaL Nov 2016 #34

Which is based off of data sets. It's not guess work. Polls showed that voter turnout was going to Exilednight Nov 2016 #39

Polls don't actually show anything. LisaL Nov 2016 #62

Sorry... that's self-contradictory FBaggins Nov 2016 #28

Social scence does include art, it just studies it. I've also never met a pollster that will tell Exilednight Nov 2016 #36

Really? FBaggins Nov 2016 #40

Did Mark Penn get this election right? Exilednight Nov 2016 #41

Lol... you don't realize the implication there... do you? FBaggins Nov 2016 #43

I do realize it. The implication is that any pollster that says polling is an art is going to get Exilednight Nov 2016 #44

Um... so where are the "scientific" pollsters who got it right? FBaggins Nov 2016 #45

There are lists of people who broke down the same polls and came up with how this election would Exilednight Nov 2016 #49

And you're hiding from naming them now because...? FBaggins Nov 2016 #53

Montgomery and Hollenbech from Vox got it right. Exilednight Nov 2016 #58

Now you're just grasping at straws FBaggins Nov 2016 #60

Yes, and? Bob41213 Nov 2016 #106

Provisional and cross check? Satch59 Nov 2016 #3

Excuse my ignorance - so... cilla4progress Nov 2016 #12

I'm confused also... Satch59 Nov 2016 #27

WI says they're looking SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #37

Wisconsin has has same day registration forthemiddle Nov 2016 #85

Got it SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #86

i recorded the show. let me play it back and see if i can clarify KewlKat Nov 2016 #61

Ok....here are my notes and quotes from the Joy Reid episode from this morning KewlKat Nov 2016 #70

Wow great report! Satch59 Nov 2016 #84

Palast warned us in August about the crosscheck purge but none of us screamed loud enough KewlKat Nov 2016 #87

I would not be at all surprised if there are uncounted... 3catwoman3 Nov 2016 #88

Same in other battleground states, same rigorous, accurate polling in all of them. Coyotl Nov 2016 #4

CrossCheat Zambero Nov 2016 #9

How likely is it to find this cilla4progress Nov 2016 #13

I'm wondering the same Zambero Nov 2016 #29

I'm pretty sure that Crossscheck SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #42

Polls don't win elections. LisaL Nov 2016 #14

However... Zambero Nov 2016 #31

But Crosscheck doesn't filter votes SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #74

I think it's now blindingly obvious that anamnua Nov 2016 #30

Not evidenced by thousands of Trump yard signs Zambero Nov 2016 #33

I wanted to put on a Hillary bumper sticker, but BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #102

I do not believe that for a second cilla4progress Nov 2016 #38

I don't know about that. Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2016 #71

This idea might have some merit, however Stargleamer Nov 2016 #51

Each state is different. LisaL Nov 2016 #59

Polsters response: "...well, that's a rational question...but fuck you ok? go fuck off k? " /sarcasm uponit7771 Nov 2016 #47

LOL. Remember 2004? ucrdem Nov 2016 #50

Yeap... these fuckers are either in on it or stupid beyond belief uponit7771 Nov 2016 #54

Yet Trump was leading Iowa. RandySF Nov 2016 #55

That's not what RCP reported IIRC uponit7771 Nov 2016 #56

IA/OH are swing states, WI/MI are not. /nt radius777 Nov 2016 #64

Obviously WI and MI are swing states because they swung republican this election. LisaL Nov 2016 #73

I think they were stolen. radius777 Nov 2016 #100

They were stolen triron Nov 2016 #101

Polls were off. They were overestimating turnout and were missing people. davidn3600 Nov 2016 #66

initial exits were wrong regarding Latinos radius777 Nov 2016 #67

The enthusiasm that was there for Obama just simply was not there for her davidn3600 Nov 2016 #69

Us democrats, we need to be excited in order to vote. LisaL Nov 2016 #72

True, but every candidate has flaws, and she was more than good enough radius777 Nov 2016 #99

WE are a blue state jodymarie aimee Nov 2016 #79

You aren't blue any more FBaggins Nov 2016 #83

Thank you, never doubted it ucrdem Nov 2016 #103

Post convention SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #82

They don't have TV, radio, print and social media? ucrdem Nov 2016 #91

I understand that SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #92

Hillary was there in March and April and Bill, Chelsea, Tim Kaine and Joe Biden ucrdem Nov 2016 #93

Sending surrogates SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #94

How would they even know? ucrdem Nov 2016 #95

Seriously? SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #96

Seriously. She WAS there, for several days. As to who won the state, that remains to be seen. ucrdem Nov 2016 #97

Yeah, she was there 7 months before the election SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #98