Anatomy of a Democratic Midterm Freakout

[DonViejo]

PHILIP BUMP

National Democrats are in a near panic — if the media's highly-attuned panic detectors are any indicator — with a "poisonous" president unable to use his popularity to sway voters, a "screaming siren" warning about mid-term turnout, and Republicans on the offensive on Obamacare. There are a long eight months until November, but Democrats seem unlikely to get much sleep over the interim.

There are (at least!) six reasons why.

1. The midterms were always going to be bad for Democrats because of turnout.

It's important to remember that the midterm elections were always going to be difficult for the Democrats. Lower turnout elections usually favor Republicans, whose older, wealthier constituents vote more reliably. One large reason that Republican David Jolly won the special election in Florida last week was that turnout was very, very low.

On Bloomberg TV over the weekend, Obama advisor David Plouffe didn't mince words. "We have a turnout issue," he said. "This is a screaming siren that the same problems that afflicted us [in 2010] could happen again." In 2010 — a low turnout election that strongly favored the nascent Tea Party movement — Democrats lost 63 seats. Republicans are unlikely to make that much progress again simply because they did so well four years ago. But Democrats are unlikely to make much headway — and certainly won't retake the Chamber. "No prominent Democrats predict their party will win back the House," The New York Times drily notes.

2. President Obama is near all-time lows on his approval ratings.

That Times article also contains a quote explaining one of the key reasons Democrats are freaked out. "One Democratic lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, said Mr. Obama was becoming 'poisonous' to the party’s candidates." Presidential popularity can be a key tool for ginning up support on the campaign trail. And being tied to an unpopular president can be an anchor.

more
http://www.thewire.com/politics/2014/03/anatomy-democratic-midterm-freakout/359229/