Who do you believe will be the Democratic Nominee?

[whatthehey]

37. There's always hope, but it would have to be a stunning reversal

for which there is little momentum and next to no precedent. I'm basing this not on national polls but state polls, organizational effectiveness and primary sequence. Afer NH and IA it's a long southern/midwestern road for Sanders and I doubt the Twitterati have the machine politics worked out enough to sustain him in the face of Clinton's dominance there until more left-leaning states can give him a lift. To be sure there's always a chance that sweeping the first two states, itself a very tall order given IA data but caucuses rewardenthusiasm so it's not a done deal, might cause some kind of sudden "Well hell why not" switch among the less involved Dems who may be willing to vote in primaries, but his chances rest on either that or the surprising realization of the oft-prophesied but never seen emergence of a committed younger generation who will somehow decide to get out from behind their XBoxs and vote for a change.

Neither are all that probable I confess.