Why Warren can not win the presidency

[Garrett78]

68. Partisans who don't like partisanship.

Last edited Sat Sep 28, 2019, 03:12 AM - Edit history (1)

While around four-in-10 voters say they’re independents, very few are actually swing voters. In fact, according to an analysis of voting patterns conducted by Michigan State University political scientist Corwin Smidt, those who identify as independents today are more stable in their support for one or the other party than were “strong partisans” back in the 1970s. According to Dan Hopkins, a professor of government at the University of Pennsylvania, “independents who lean toward the Democrats are less likely to back GOP candidates than are weak Democrats.”

https://www.thenation.com/article/what-everyone-gets-wrong-about-independent-voters/

I've posted that and other articles on this topic several times before. The other point that is made about "independents" is that they aren't as engaged in politics and are less likely to vote than the average party-affiliated voter.

Anyway, the larger point I keep making is that a popular post-2016 narrative about what happened and why is completely bogus. And that narrative seems to be the basis for this notion that only Joe Biden can win in 2020. Also, early hypothetical match-up polls are historically misleading. Just ask President Dukakis.

The primary focus must be on boosting turnout among POC, youth and white women in the suburbs. Not on flipping Trump voters or winning alleged swing voters who aren't actually swing voters.