STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 24, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 23, 2010

Dow 11,036.37 -142.21 (-1.29%)
Nasdaq 2,494.95 -37.07 (-1.49%)
S&P 500 1,180.73 -17.11 (-1.45%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.78 -0.01 (-0.25%)
30-Year Bond 4.19 -0.01 (-0.19%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

[Roland99]

2. ooo...pretty colors

:)


morning, ozy

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning, Roland.

:donut: :donut: :donut: I looked at the volume of reports and thought it would be much easier to grab, edit and post the image than it would have been to reformat the huge volume of text for the DU message window. In fact, it was easier with many fewer keystrokes.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

80. U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Since July 2008

Well, this is a nice surprise. I do hope it is for the best reasons, rather than a reflection of statistical technique. From Bloomberg:

Jobless claims declined by 34,000 to 407,000 in the week ended Nov. 20, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 435,000. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased to the lowest in two years, and those on extended payments also fell.

Did they fall because they found jobs? Or did these numbers falls because these people are no longer counted as "unemployed" as benefits run out? Is this a reflection of holiday hiring?

As it turns out, there was some statistical plastering in these stats combined with lower initial claims numbers:

Claims typically increase during the period between the Veterans Day and Thanksgiving holidays, and the Labor Department’s seasonal adjustment process takes that into account. During the latest week, fewer Americans than usual filed claims, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released, allowing seasonally adjusted filings to decrease more than forecast.

Up next: Durable goods figures, spending and income:

Spending and Income

Household purchases advanced 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent gain in September that was larger than previously estimated. Incomes climbed 0.5 percent.

Orders for U.S. goods meant to last several years unexpectedly decreased in October, the Commerce Department also said. Demand for so-called durable goods dropped 3.3 percent, the biggest plunge since January 2009, after a revised 5 percent jump in September that was larger than previously estimated.

These tend to move in accordance with housing sales. A drop in durable goods comes as no surprise since housing is seriously in the tank. These numbers from have improved during the last quarter. Spending and income numbers suggest that people are saving more and using less credit.

On the whole, I think we may be on a trend that will eventually revise the GDP equation in terms of consumer spending.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to near $82 amid mixed US demand signs

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose slightly to near $82 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as an upward revision of U.S. economic growth and a report showing an unexpected jump in crude inventories provided mixed signals on demand.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that crude inventories rose 5.2 million barrels last week while analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast a drop of 1.9 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline and distillates fell, the API said.

U.S. gasoline demand fell 0.9 percent last week, according to MasterCard. Demand is up just 0.4 percent so far this year from the same period last year, MasterCard said Tuesday.

Oil prices were supported by an upward revision of third quarter gross domestic product growth. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the economy expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, up from the 2 percent pace initially estimated.

more

The Energy Department's petroleum reports will be released later today.

[ozymandius]

5. Haves and Have Nots Diverge in Spending as Holidays Approach

[ozymandius]

10. Do you mean my post #5?

Yes - that was weird. I recreated the post and threw it on my blog for backup. I guess data packets were lost in transmission. :shrug:

[Dr.Phool]

15. I'll bet it's some kind of conspiracy.

Good morning all.

Have a good, safe day and avoid airports. And Black Fridays.

[ozymandius]

21. It's the TSA's fault.

Must've stripped my post down to its skivvies.

My Black Friday will be spent reading at the pub for a couple of hours. I do hope yours is cheery and safe.

[Po_d Mainiac]

40. New Motto's for the TSA

We grab more junk than recyclers.
The ramp rats aren’t the only ones handling your bags.
Turn your head and cough.
It was better for me than it was for you.
The hands on approach, to your security.
What are you bitchin about? I just saved you a trip to the proctologist.
Wish me luck...I'm going in.

[Dr.Phool]

43. We handle more packages than USPS.

There's not even a co-pay for the colonoscopy.

[ozymandius]

46. I just got an idea for my next physical.

No co-pay. Plus I travel. It's a two-fer.

[Ghost Dog]

92. Avoid airports. If only (on my third in two days).

Getting too close to the lackeys of the rich

makes me feel sick.

[tclambert]

17. And what's with post #6? It kinda lampreyed onto #5.

It's like when a tranporter malfunctions on Star Trek.

[ozymandius]

23. Frankenpost?

Yikes! I have reloaded the thread so that I get posts one at a time instead of the laundry list below the post links. #6 looks fine this way.

[DemReadingDU]

57. that is odd

2 postings in the same block

[ozymandius]

11. Thank you, florida08.

I hope yours is peaceful and warm. :hi:

[florida08]

24. goodness..sorry ozy

Looks like mine crashed into yours. Was normal before I posted..hope that's not an omen.:tinfoilhat:

[ozymandius]

29. Not an omen. Just a glitch.

Random weirdness happens.

[Dr.Phool]

31. I probably caused it with this.

Needs a grope or a kick or something.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x532505#532547

[Po_d Mainiac]

48. I just groped it for ya. n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

49. I gave it one. . ..

. . . or the other. . . .


TG

[Roland99]

7. Futures slowly working their way up

DJIA INDEX 11,042.00 28.00
S&P 500 1,182.30 4.00
NASDAQ 100 2,124.00 5.00

[ozymandius]

9. Haves and Have Nots Diverge in Spending as Holidays Approach

A number of surveys suggest consumers are opening their wallets a bit wider this year, but most of the gains are expected to come from the well-heeled.

A survey by MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse showed modest overall gains in spending led by luxury items in the first half of November. The luxury index excluding jewelry, which tallies sales at high-end restaurant, food stores, department stores and general apparel categories rose 6.7 percent through November 13, in sharp contrast to a fall of 9.2 percent last year.

A separate report by Deloitte consultancy found 66 percent of consumers surveyed indicated their financial situation is the same or better compared to this time a year ago, and 62 percent plan to spend the same or more on the holidays compared to 2009.

But 50 percent of consumers feel the economy is either in a recession or heading back into one, the survey found.

more

Take these figures with a pinch of salt. I recall from last year a similar forecast: cautious shoppers with a burst of activity at the end. It was only after the holidays when retailers showed any clarity on sales activity. This is one case in which anecdotal evidence referring either to "crowded parking lots" or "empty stores" is worthless since so much holiday shopping is done both online and on foot with a near 50/50 split.

Gift cards are very popular, too. Gift cards do not factor into holiday sales until they are exchanged for merchandise. In sum - this is really difficult to nearly impossible dynamic to forecast.

[Dr.Phool]

18. One Grinch rolling into the holiday season.

Several million families facing the prospect of no income, starting the first of the month, when unemployment benefits are set to expire.

All I want for the holidays is one of these.

[Demeter]

12. Banks Confront Weight of Risk

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303550904575562581708345668.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Tuesday its risk-weighted assets would surge to about $750 billion from $451 billion if new international capital guidelines known as Basel III rules were implemented on the company's assets as of June 30. While the company is likely to take steps to reduce that $750 billion, a significant increase in risk-weightings is expected, which means the company will need to set aside additional capital to meet regulatory requirements.

"There are some businesses...that might be diminished," Goldman Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said. Citing the toughened rules, he predicted that trading desks dealing in securitized loans or buying and selling assets based on correlations to other trading positions might do less business, though he noted the businesses were already small at Goldman.

Under existing bank regulations, riskier assets require more capital to be set aside as a buffer against losses. Under the new rules, more capital will be required—and more assets are going to be treated as risky. It adds up to a regulatory one-two punch, according to analysts....

Looked at another way, the old rules essentially allowed Goldman to count only about half its assets when measuring the risks of its $900 billion balance sheet.,,,The new rules, which start taking effect in 2013, would make the company count about 83% of its June 30 assets....The rules won't fully be in place until 2019.

[tclambert]

13. Apparently, Rush Limbaugh and George Will attacked the Chevy Volt

http://blogs.motortrend.com/rush-judgment-5957.html

Rush got exercised about Motor Trend choosing the Volt as 2011 Car of the Year. Neither Limbaugh nor Will have driven a Chevy Volt, nor seem to understand that it can go more than 40 miles at a time (it can go hundreds on a tank of gas). Limbaugh expressed outrage (what else does he ever express?) that they selected a Car of the Year that hasn't sold a single unit. He seems not to get that Motor Trend test drives cars before the general public sees them.

Limbaugh and Will are politicizing the Chevy Volt, making ownership of that car a partisan issue now. It's okay for Democrats to buy Volts, but Republicans and especially Teabaggers MUST NOT. This may affect sales, though I'm not sure which way. True Republicans should not drive Priuses, either. Bad for oil companies. True Republicans should only drive German luxury sedans. I'm sorry, I mean their paid chauffeurs should drive them. Imagine Rush Limbaugh driving a car himself!

[Demeter]

14. If the Teabaggers Are That Stupid, Let Them

not that anyone but an overlord can afford a Prius or a Volt....

[Dr.Phool]

22. Damn! I'm an overlord and didn't even know it.

Actually, a basic Prius is not all that unreasonable.

A Volt is probably out of my range, however.

[ozymandius]

28. I thought it was a requirement for Tea Bagging Republicans to drive ginormous gas guzzlers.

I mean: gas guzzlers on the scale that unspent fuel sputters from the exhaust pipe. If the car does not do that then one runs the risk of being exiled from Conservative Jonestown.

They will politicize anything. They have seriously attempted to politicize happiness.

[Demeter]

33. Let's See, If You Want Change, You Are Unhappy?

Whereas if you are (temporarily) sitting on top of your world, you aren't?

Let's compare drug and alcohol use, if we are going to measure happiness, and addiction.

And that matters how? Change is a necessary function of growth and maturity. Change or die, Nature says.

One would hope that the "conservatives" among us get run over by their own SUVs, and impoverished by their own elected officials, and fired by their right-wing bosses...

[Tansy_Gold]

51. My apologies to all, but I drive an SUV

2000 S-10 Blazer with 165,000 miles. It gets lousy gas mileage, but I don't drive much. I need it for business, and it's what I could afford at the time. American Family Insurance dicked with me for three weeks after one of their insureds hit-and-run totaled our vehicle. In between the accident and the settlement, my husband was diagnosed with terminal cancer. I got what I could with a 24 hour notice.

I realize that probably 95% of the SUVs on the roads are vanity vehicles. They're rarely put into 4WD, generally have one driver and 0 passengers and no cargo. But for those of us who need one, it's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Instead of taking potshots at us, go after the auto makers and their lobbyists who exempted SUVs from fuel economy standards.


TG, NTY

[Demeter]

60. No Offense Intended, Tansy

It's just that I've survived too many attempts on my life by SUVs in downtown Ann Arbor...when it wasn't winter, even.

I have no quarrel with the proper selection of a car for the type of driving.

I do have a problem with the SUV fetish.


And it's no exaggeration to say, these SUVs all had Bush, Palin, or other RW bumper stickers. Whereas I go about in an unmarked sedan.

[ozymandius]

64. I have no issue with one who drives and SUV as a necessity.

Like you, I know artists who drive the biggest, baddest vehicles one can imagine because they can fit their entire inventory, pedestals, tent and living necessities inside one vehicle.

My comments were directed at those who drive 'big' for the sake of 'big'. As Demeter commented above, there is typically one person in the passenger cabin and no cargo on a daily commute.

[Tansy_Gold]

67. Oh, I understand, Demeter and Ozy, and really no offense was taken

But my point was that the auto industry with its lobbyists and the puke administrations they lobbied were the ones who made it possible for all those UNnecessary, gas-guzzling and dangerous SUVs to be on the road.



TG, gettin' ready to pack the Blazer for two more shows this week-end.

[Dr.Phool]

34. Ignorance truly is bliss.

How many electrons had to die for this simpleton to spew that nonsense?

:puke: :puke: :puke:

[Zenlitened]

82. George Will knows virtually NOTHING about automobiles. It's laughable, every time he speaks.

Talk about running on fumes. How long has it been since he's had anything interesting to say on any topic? Years? Decades?

[hamerfan]

84. George Will

is the only person I know who can make baseball sound boring!

[Demeter]

16. Wall Street Bailout Returns 8.2% Profit Beating Treasury Bonds

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/bailout-of-wall-street-returns-8-2-profit-to-taxpayers-beating-treasuries.html

The U.S. government’s bailout of financial firms through the Troubled Asset Relief Program provided taxpayers with higher returns than yields paid on 30- year Treasury bonds -- enough money to fund the Securities and Exchange Commission for the next two decades.

The government has earned $25.2 billion on its investment of $309 billion in banks and insurance companies, an 8.2 percent return over two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That beat U.S. Treasuries, high-yield savings accounts, money- market funds and certificates of deposit. Investing in the stock market or gold would have paid off better.

When the government first announced its intention to plow funds into the nation’s banks in October 2008 to resuscitate the financial system, many expected it to lose hundreds of billions of dollars. Two years later TARP’s bank and insurance investments have made money, and about two-thirds of the funds have been paid back. Yet Democrats are struggling to turn those gains into political capital, and the indirect costs of propping up banks could have longer-term consequences for the economy.

“From the perspective of the taxpayers getting their money back, TARP has been a great success,” said Todd Petzel, chief investment officer at New York-based Offit Capital Advisors LLC, which has more than $5 billion of assets under management. “But there are other costs as the government made it possible for the banks to pay back TARP. Those costs can turn out to be larger, and their legacy could last longer....

[Demeter]

27. JPMorgan ready to axe £1.5bn London HQ

JPMorgan Chase is close to axing plans to build a £1.5bn European headquarters in Canary Wharf, opting instead for the former UK premises of Lehman Brothers

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/CTBPCC/UUXO4P/RP6QL/QFM2GK/HD1XTU/28/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23


DON'T ANYBODY TELL THEM ABOUT THE CURSE ON THE BUILDING....OR THE GHOSTS THAT HAUNT IT...I'M SURE IT WILL BE LOVELY. GAH!!!

[ozymandius]

19. Gloomy Fed employment forecast overshadows upbeat GDP data

From the LA Times yesterday:

The American economy grew faster in the third quarter this year than previously estimated, but that bit of encouraging news was overshadowed by a grim new forecast from the Federal Reserve that predicted unemployment would remain at about 9% next year and stay high for years to come.

The pessimistic long-term outlook underscored the possibility that the United States — after years of good times that cast a rosy glow over the American dream and raised personal expectations for the future — may now be headed for a grayer, more financially constricted decade or more.

Even so, analysts say GDP growth of at least 3% is needed to bring down the jobless figure — and many don't expect the economy to perform that well in the fourth quarter or early next year.

more

The Fed forecast growth at 2% growth. The reported figure was at 2.5%. While worker productivity remains ahead of GDP then job creation will remain stagnant.

[xchrom]

20. recommend

[Festivito]

25. Debt: 11/22/2010 13,794,645,743,594.58 (UP 4,946,549,065.25) (Mon)

(Up a little. Good day.)
My poor muscles are not yelling at me, only mildly shouting from time to time.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,205,399,986,156.01 + 4,589,245,757,438.57
UP 68,056,529.55 + UP 4,878,492,535.70

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,217.92 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,760,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,390..
A family of three owes $133,170.01. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 6,048,607,208.74.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,234,025,046.12.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,097,443,593.02.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 36 reports in 53 days of FY2011 averaging 6.47B$ per report, 4.40B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 790 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/22/2010 13,794,645,743,594.58 BHO (UP 3,167,768,694,681.50 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,233,022,712,702.80 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,604,779,059,179.67 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/01/2010 +063,143,305,537.83 ------------********** Mon
11/02/2010 +000,562,237,098.37 ------------********
11/03/2010 -000,042,244,820.71 ----
11/04/2010 +002,136,844,217.63 ------------*********
11/05/2010 -000,209,791,147.70 ---
11/08/2010 -000,059,969,255.93 ---- Mon
11/09/2010 -000,005,858,868.46 -----
11/10/2010 +001,354,516,168.52 ------------*********
11/12/2010 +001,236,686,699.48 ------------*********
11/15/2010 +065,794,144,300.11 ------------********** Mon
11/16/2010 +000,750,562,513.87 ------------********
11/17/2010 +000,670,859,874.97 ------------********
11/18/2010 -002,271,166,541.35 --
11/19/2010 +002,392,756,046.31 ------------*********
11/22/2010 +000,068,056,529.55 ------------******* Mon

135,520,938,352.49 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4625932&mesg_id=4625942

[Festivito]

91. Debt: 11/23/2010 13,797,004,450,927.68 (UP 2,358,707,333.10) (Tue)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Less hours between work days.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,205,377,401,824.96 + 4,591,627,049,102.72
DOWN 22,584,331.05 + UP 2,381,291,664.15

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,217.84 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,767,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,396.56.
A family of three owes $133,189.69. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,880,884,487.12.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,312,648,623.89.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,043,108,084.90.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 37 reports in 54 days of FY2011 averaging 6.36B$ per report, 4.36B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 789 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/23/2010 13,797,004,450,927.68 BHO (UP 3,170,127,402,014.60 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,235,381,420,035.90 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,591,004,042,835.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/02/2010 +000,562,237,098.37 ------------********
11/03/2010 -000,042,244,820.71 ----
11/04/2010 +002,136,844,217.63 ------------*********
11/05/2010 -000,209,791,147.70 ---
11/08/2010 -000,059,969,255.93 ---- Mon
11/09/2010 -000,005,858,868.46 -----
11/10/2010 +001,354,516,168.52 ------------*********
11/12/2010 +001,236,686,699.48 ------------*********
11/15/2010 +065,794,144,300.11 ------------********** Mon
11/16/2010 +000,750,562,513.87 ------------********
11/17/2010 +000,670,859,874.97 ------------********
11/18/2010 -002,271,166,541.35 --
11/19/2010 +002,392,756,046.31 ------------*********
11/22/2010 +000,068,056,529.55 ------------******* Mon
11/23/2010 -000,022,584,331.05 ----

72,355,048,483.61 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4627239&mesg_id=4627283

[Demeter]

26. Caterpillar to issue renminbi bond

Caterpillar, the US-based manufacturer of earth-moving equipment, is marketing a two-year Rmb1bn bond to institutional investors in Hong Kong, becoming the first foreign industrial multinational to issue debt in the Chinese currency.

The issue, which is only the second by a multinational to date, dwarfs a Rmb200m issue launched by McDonald’s in August.

The deal will give momentum to the nascent offshore market in renminbi-denominated debt which financiers hope will become an important fundraising route for companies with operations in China.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/ZE9K33/3OJ51O/Q38E1/5CF9QA/8A9VUK/9A/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23

[cottonseed]

96. Nice little pearl here. Thanks for posting. nt

[Ghost Dog]

100. Interesting, yes. n/t

[tclambert]

101. Okay, now you're just making up words.

To which I reply: Flbtjblitherun.

[Demeter]

106. Not I!

Either the English or the Chinese (or both)

[Demeter]

30. FOMC minutes reveal Fed divisions

The Federal Reserve considered whether to target a long-term interest rate at a special videoconference meeting in mid-October, in what would have been a radical change to its monetary policy, according to the minutes of its November meeting.

Although the Fed rejected this policy, it suggests that targeting a long-term rate - such as the yield on 10-year Treasury securities - might be an option if inflation continues to fall in spite of the new $600bn round of quantitative easing, nicknamed QE2.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/BMLEK1/DXJ2Y/KECGYL/9ZS2YT/SN/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23


HELLO! CAN ANYBODY AT THE FED SEE A REAL PERSON, LIVE?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSNyiSetZ8Y

POOH-Bh. "I see nothing to laugh at. It is very painful to me
to have to say "How de do, little girls, how de do?" to young
persons. I'm not in the habit of saying "How de do, little
girls, how de do?" to anybody under the rank of a Stockbroker."

WS Gilbert- The Mikado

[florida08]

32. With New Power, GOP Takes On Consumer Agency

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703559504575631082414598868.html?mg=reno-secaucus-wsj

House Republican lawmakers fired the opening salvo Monday in a war they plan against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau created by this year's overhaul of financial regulations.

Republican Reps. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the leading contender to take the reins of the House Financial Services Committee, and Illinois Rep. Judy Biggert, the top Republican on the panel's oversight and investigations subcommittee, sent letters to the inspectors general of both the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, directing them to conduct an investigation into the work being done to establish the new bureau.

;(

[Demeter]

35. Investigation of What?

These people are sick and vengeful morons.

[florida08]

73. something about

the fangs of the banking cartel not having free and unfettered access to our throats.

[Dr.Phool]

42. Tell them to stuff it.

Claim Executive Privilege, and call me in two years. And oh, by the way, heard anything from the IRS and FBI lately? They were asking about you.

[Hugin]

77. WHAT?! But... But... I thought the tit-for-tat non-investigatorius bi-partisensus pact ...

Instigated by our illustrious spineless leadership's 3D-chess tournament was supposed to insulate us from such frivolous investigations by GOP Partisans! :eyes:

[Tansy_Gold]

86. Yer funny!

:cry: 'cause it's true

[tclambert]

104. If he had the guts, he could shut down all their investigations by countering

with a threat to have the Justice Department investigate war crimes.

[tclambert]

102. All Republican investigations will have a cutoff date of Jan. 21, 2009.

No one may mention the time before that. Officially no such time will exist.

And no investigation must ever mention war crimes.

And no investigator may ever, EVER mention Dick Cheney.

[Demeter]

36. Mohamed El-Erian: Urgent EU action needed to stop contagion

The run up to the recent turmoil in Ireland was marked by two oddities. It is extremely rare for creditors to push a struggling debtor to ask for more loans. It is also unusual to see creditors signal so loudly their willingness to provide additional funding, before the borrower is ready to detail what it intends to do to restore its solvency.

All of this shows the extent of Europe’s concerns about Ireland. And with Greece already on financial life support, the region now faces the risk of further, widening disruptions in its periphery.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/5F39HH/6VNKC2/06MUC/GK8HPE/GK1ILN/D5/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

37. Irish rescue is expensive sticking plaster

There are only two ways out of the Irish crisis. The first is what is likely to happen: following Ireland’s finance minister agreeing to apply for a bail-out loan on Sunday, European states will pick up the tab for bailing out Irish banks, and leave the mess elsewhere for another day. But this is unfair to European taxpayers, conducive to moral hazard, and highly unlikely to solve the underlying problem.

The other, better option is to address the problem of EU banks as a whole. To do this a ruthless mark-to-market analysis of the balance sheets of all European banks is now needed – the only way to find out how much their assets are actually worth – followed by a continenal rescue plan.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/NA70KK/PR7PDY/Q38E1/WLD2LK/BMR0UM/RF/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=22

NOW THAT WOULD PUT A CAT AMONG THE PIGEONS!

[Demeter]

44. EU warns Ireland over snap election

WHAT NEXT? TSA FOR IRELAND? WHY DOESN'T THE EU MIND ITS OWN DAMN BUSINESS?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8153279/EU-warns-Ireland-over-snap-election.html

The European Union has warned the Irish government that snap elections would be “very irresponsible” as post-bail-out turmoil continues to rock Ireland's political establishment...

Brian Cowen, the beleaguered Irish Prime Minister, tonight faces “war” within his Fianna Fail party as rebel MPs demand his resignation and plot a no confidence motion to try to avoid losing their seats in a meltdown electoral defeat in the New Year.

During emergency cabinet talks on Monday night, at least three ministers urged him “to consider his options” after the government's Green coalition partner threatened to pull out unless they were promised an election after a parliamentary vote on a 2011 Irish budget in December...Mr Cowen was ready to resign, according to party sources quoted in the Irish Times, but surprised colleagues by deciding to tough it out, even if the decision meant the sacrifice of Fianna Fail which faces its lowest polls approval in 88 years.

Vital to his attempt to maintain power, were EU warnings that Ireland's £77 billion bail-out would be jeopardised if the government fell...

[Demeter]

45. Every family in Britain will have to pay £300 to bail out the Irish

WONDER HOW MUCH THE US TAXPAYER IS CHIPPING IN, AND IF WE WILL EVER FIND OUT...




British taxpayers will be landed with an increase in the colossal debt burden - already £952billion - at a time of desperate cost cutting.

They will be stung three times because Ireland will receive funds from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and direct loans from Britain.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1331870/IRELAND-BAILOUT-Every-family-Britain-pay-300.html#ixzz16Cjjxi8u

[Demeter]

55. Dublin to take majority stake in Bank of Ireland

Government keen to avoid full nationalisation but amount of capital that will be pumped into the bank will leave Dublin with a large holding

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/6VNDIH/PNGIU/RN5AYN/26D88V/N9/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

68. Reassurances fail to dispel bank fears

European institutions hold nearly $509bn of Irish exposure, according to the most recent figures from the Bank for International Settlements

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/OZMCDD/GK89GK/XBAN6/ZBE4HS/C5FVU9/PJ/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23

[Dr.Phool]

65. Cowen is putting the "Fail" in Fianna.

And the unwashed proles are getting restless. Somebody has the nerve to stand up to the banks and corporations? Why, I've never....

People have a lot of nerve, being asked to pay for the mess created by the banks and the corporations, while said entities cry and protest that it's so unfair for them to make some type of positive contribution to society. Something other than pillaging.

[Ghost Dog]

94. The word I'm hearing is: There will be HAIRCUTS

inevitably.

[ozymandius]

95. Banksters deserve it.

I am rooting for Ireland to start bleeding banksters for their recklessness. Banks do not deserve 100% returns on bets they lost.

[Ghost Dog]

103. Investment banks, that is, no? - shouldn't we be more specific?

And the 'investment banking' arms of commercial banks and similar 'institutions'.

[ozymandius]

113. Indeed.

I do not with to see the manager at my local S&L to be forced to leave the country.

[fasttense]

75. My, my, now the EU is dictating election cycles for the Irish.

It's not bad enough that the EU is dictating NO Tax Increases for Corporations in Ireland, while advocating for Tax Increases and minimum wage cuts for the workers at the bottom.

Now, they are telling Ireland when and how to run elections.

Seems EU bailouts come with some crushing restrictions on sovereignty. Looks like the banks are setting the stage for some massive suffering, riots, and perhaps a few World Wars or two.

Seems Europe has not learned the lessons of its own history.

[Dr.Phool]

78. Or FRSP's.

And the Irish are just the people to pass them out.

[Dr.Phool]

85. Irish unveil harshest cuts, tax hikes in history

DUBLIN (AP) -- Ireland unveiled the harshest budget measures in its history Wednesday, a four-year plan to slash deficits euro15 billion ($20 billion) so it can get a massive bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

The plan seeks to cut euro10 billion ($13.3 billion) from spending and raise euro5 billion ($6.7 billion) in extra taxes from 2011 to 2014. It axes thousands of state jobs, welfare benefits, and pension payments while raising university fees and taxes, forcing even Prime Minister Brian Cowen to concede it will hurt the living standard of everyone in the nation.

Analysts, meanwhile, feared that the size of the EU-IMF bailout - estimated at euro85 billion ($115 billion) - will be too little to save Ireland from an eventual default.

And bank shares plummeted for a third straight day on the Irish Stock Exchange in growing expectation that investors would be wiped out if the government is forced to seize total control of the country's two dominant banks, Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland.

(snip)

Business leaders welcomed the package as brutal but unavoidable given that Ireland is all but frozen out of normal lending markets and its banks are running out of cash.

But outside the guarded iron gates of Cowen's office, about 100 activists denounced the government and the IMF, and Irish unions planned to march Saturday against the cuts.

"This is a road map back to the Stone Age," said Jack O'Connor, president of Ireland's largest union, SIPTU.

He noted that Ireland had already suffered nearly euro15 billion in cuts and tax hikes since 2008, gutting economic growth and helping to double unemployment to 13.6 percent.

"Ireland needs a strategy for growth, but this plan will achieve the opposite," O'Connor said.

(snip)

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_IRELAND_FINANCIAL_CRISIS?SITE=FLPET&SECTION=HOME

[ozymandius]

90. Fianna Fail just committed political suicide.

They are good as gone. Greens call for snap elections as the coalition crumbles.

[Ghost Dog]

93. Funny that the FT much more rarely expresses such sentiments as regards US

and UK banks, though.

[Demeter]

70. Spain and Portugal reject talk of bail-outs

Spanish and Portuguese leaders, with reinforcements from Brussels, are fighting a rearguard action to convince investors that there is no need for further eurozone bail-outs

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/EWBERD/DXJ2Y/GK8PAQ/NS8DF0/GX/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23

[Demeter]

71. Shock therapy experts warn Poles on debt

Critics say Poland’s rising deficit undermines government boasts that it has eschewed Keynesian anti-crisis measures. The government special factors distort the fiscal picture, writes Neil Buckley

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/EWBERD/DXJ2Y/GK8PAQ/QF0EP5/GX/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23

[Po_d Mainiac]

38. More discussion of the EU

snip

In the end, Europe is going to move in one of two directions. Either this financial crisis will finally be the thing that breaks up the euro and the European Union, or it will result in a Europe that is ruled even more strongly by EU bureaucrats.

As this crisis unfolds over the next couple of years, the EU is going to try to grab more power and more control. They are going to ask national governments to give up substantial amounts of power and sovereignty in exchange for bailouts. So far it is working.

But at some point will one nation say that enough is enough?

Perhaps that one nation could be Ireland. The citizens of Ireland actually voted "no" on the EU Constitution, but then the EU forced them to vote a second time so that they could "get it right".

Wouldn't it be ironic if it is Ireland that ends up lighting the fuse that breaks up the euro and the European Union? The Irish are a fiercely independent people, and they have a history of resisting tyranny.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/could-the-financial-crisis-erupting-in-ireland-portugal-greece-and-spain-lead-to-the-end-of-the-euro-and-the-break-up-of-the-european-union

[Demeter]

41. I remember that fight

So they rewarded Ireland with ten good years of bubbly. And then dumped her.

[ozymandius]

39. Time to Start Building Pyramids

Workers such as “Big John” Filmore, a 28-year Campbell veteran, huddle every day with management in situation rooms before their shifts to find ways to save money for the company. Rising productivity is helping boost profit margins here in Maxton, North Carolina, where 858 workers turn out a billion meals a year, and at most of the 243 non-financial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index with rising profit margins

Growth in productivity, or output produced in an hour of work, averaged an annualized 3.4 percent rate in the five quarters since the 18-month recession ended in June 2009. That is similar to the 3.7 percent gain in the first five quarters after the 2001-2003 so-called jobless recovery.

The efficiency gains have paid off in corporate profits. Earnings from continuing operations of companies in the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index on a trailing 12-month basis as of Nov. 10 have rebounded 23 percent since the fourth quarter of 2007. Sales have declined 9 percent over the same period.

more

We just need to start building something: pyramids, high speed rail lines, an Eiffel Tower project in every city with a population over 1 Million people. Anything really. Corporate profits are soaring through the roof yet the productivity outstrips GDP - especially that 'consumer spending' element of the GDP equation. Businesses will not hire as long as that remains so.

If I were commissar then profits would be taxed at a much higher rate. That money would then put unemployed people to work. Any project -even a pyramid for vanity's sake- would provide stimulus.

[tclambert]

107. Pyramids? What, are you crazy?

Oh, wait, I keep suggesting that. I really want colonies on Mars. If Jack or Bobby had not been assassinated, I think we would be there by now.

I remember when Americans used to be proud we had the tallest building, longest bridge, biggest dam, fastest bestest whatever it was. Now we have none of those.

Ah, hell, a Republican House of Representatives won't agree to any such things. If Obama wanted to get this country going, he needed to do it way back in his first 100 days.

[Ghost Dog]

110. You say build anything, pyramids for example, to provide jobs and stimulate the economy.

Surely it would make most sense, existentially, to design and build useful stuff: engineer an environmentally-sustainable framework for a socially satisfactory future, for example?

Ah but no, of course, only unfettered capitalism (crony-psuedo-capitalism, imho) is to be allowed to pretend to do anything like that.

Under the present, um, pseudo-system, that is.

Will (we 'Western') frogs leap out of the (almoist boiling, now) water anytime soon?

And overturn 'tables' in 'temples'?

I guess not.

Our great-grandchildren will probably have no way to even begin to understand what we are talking about, here and now, in that bleak future to come, very close now down the road.

Unless...

[Demeter]

47. Tell President Obama to Reject Social Security Cuts

http://action.ourfuture.org/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=131

SIGN THE PETITION

[tclambert]

105. Done.

[Demeter]

50. Bernanke vs. Keynes By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article26901.htm

...Currently, businesses are sitting on nearly $2 trillion, a record amount of cash. The corporate coffers are full because business leaders cannot find profitable outlets for investment. That's because demand is weak. Consumers and households are unable to spend at precrisis levels because much of their personal wealth was wiped out when the housing bubble burst. So, spending is down and borrowing is flat. There's little demand for the products sold by big business, which is why they are sitting on so much money.

At the same time, retail investors continue to exit the markets. Last week marked "the 27th consecutive week of domestic fund outflows." (zero hedge) Investors have been drawing-down their investments ever since the May "Flash Crash" when the stock market plunged nearly 1,000 points in a matter of minutes. The credibility of the equities markets has been severely damaged by high-frequency traders who have been gaming the system with supercomputers that give them an edge over "mom and pop" investors. Consider this: "70% of the stocks that are traded are held for just 11 seconds". This is not a market; it is a casino, which is why retail investors are leaving.

So, corporations are sitting on a mountain of cash and private investors are fleeing the market. Both of these will stunt future growth. Even so, the markets have continued to edge upwards due to liquidity injections from the Fed, historic low interest rates, and the lightening-fast exchange of paper assets between high-frequency players. Meanwhile, the real economy has reset at a lower level of activity--the "new normal"....

Here's what British economist John Maynard Keynes had to say on the topic:

"The state of confidence, as they term it, is a matter to which practical men always pay the closest attention. But economists have not analyzed it carefully."

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's efforts to restore droopy confidence have fallen short because he has taken the approach of a technician rather than a psychologist. Quantitative easing (QE) does not address the fears that people have regarding investment. Rather, it's an attempt to push down long-term interest rates in the hope that it will lead to another credit expansion. But that assumes that the obstacle to investment is interest rates and not something more elusive, like fear or uncertainty. This is the basic flaw in Bernanke's approach, he doesn't see that investment requires confidence in one's long-term expectations and that those expectations change when markets are in turmoil and outcomes are affected more by policy than fundamentals. When that happens, uncertainty deepens and investors pull back...Central bankers ignore the psychological aspects of investing at their own peril. Confidence matters. It's Bernanke's job to restore confidence via regulation, price stability and job-generating monetary policy. But the Fed chairman has failed in this regard and there are metrics within the system for measuring the magnitude of his failure. They're called bond yields and they show that investors are clinging to cash today as ferociously as they did on the day Lehman Brothers collapsed 2 years ago. Nothing has changed. Bernanke has neither reduced widespread uncertainty or persuaded investors that it's safe enough to test the water.

Quantitative easing is just more of the same; more fiddling with the financial plumbing instead of striking at the heart of the problem. Bernanke plans to purchase nearly $900 billion in US Treasuries from the banks (Note--$300 billion will come from the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities) to push down long-term interest rates and, perhaps, stimulate some additional spending. More than 90% of the Fed's purchases will be short-dated maturities. (6 month, 2-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year) Why? Because Bernanke wants to push investors out of "risk free" bonds into riskier assets, like stocks. It's the Fed's version of social engineering, like zapping lab-rats onto the flywheel to earn their kernel of corn. This is not the role of the central bank. Bernanke's mandate is "price stability and full employment". It's not his job to reconfigure the economy to suit the objectives of his bank constituents.

Private investment is flagging because ordinary working people were fleeced for nearly $13 trillion in a gigantic mortgage laundering scam. They need time to recoup their losses and rebuild their balance sheets. Many of them are still afraid to invest because they don't think that Congress's new financial regulations have fixed the system which they think is still rigged. So, they continue to stuff money into their mattresses instead of putting it in the market... There's no need to nibble at the edges of the problem with fancy asset shuffling operations (QE) that achieve nothing. Fiscal remedies have been used for over a half century and they work just fine. And, there's no need to reinvent the wheel either. What's needed is a second round of stimulus. That's all. Just drop the pretense, and get on with it. Time's a wasting.

[hamerfan]

52. Full session today?

Or only a half day on WS?
Just wondering how much time today for stocks to tank.....

[tclambert]

109. Looks like it was a full day. All mine are up.

STILL not rich. Maybe someday. The one thing we all seem to agree on here is "It's good to be rich."

[Robbien]

53. Insider trading probe expanded to mutual funds

$598 Billion Wellington Management Busted

NOW FBI WANTS INFORMATION FROM THE MONSTER MUTUAL FUND JANUS FUND


These rich guys have paid their lobbyists a ton of money to have DCers leave them alone. They must be so confused about being tapped by the feds they thought they had in their pockets.

[Demeter]

61. This is really big, I guess. Maybe Even Really Real

The question is, why not do it on the banks and mortgage frauds and securitizations?

[Robbien]

74. Goldman may be dragged into this

from here:

After the hedge-fund-raid on Monday (Diamondback, Level Global, and Loch Capital were raided), it came out yesterday that the Feds had also demanded documents from the mutual fund companies Wellington, Janus and MFS Global.

Later, SAC Capital and Citadel also admitted they'd been contacted by the feds too.

The news is nerve-wracking for Goldman employees because the same Wall Street Journal article that predicted on Friday that the investigation involved "low-level" Goldman Sachs employees, had also warned that Wellington, Citadel, SAC and MFS are entangled in the drama.

So right now, the only prediction that hasn't (to the best of our knowledge) come true is that Goldman Sachs and Maverick, another hedge fund, will receive subpoenas.

No internal email has gone out at Goldman yet, and no meeting has been called to explain who is linked to the probe within the bank.


This is unusual, says our source. Employees are usually told about these incidents almost immediately, to make sure they toe the party line, as it were, in regard to whatever the latest scandal is.

But nothing on this.

"It's hard to get a real read of what's going on because a lot of the bosses are away for the holidays," our source said. "Or maybe they just don't think this is anything major."

Either way, after we broke the news yesterday that the bank is most likely embroiled in the scandal because of Diamondback, Charlie Gasparino announced that he'd heard the same thing from more sources at Goldman. He said yesterday evening that the connection between Goldman Sachs and the investigation, is Diamondback, and "likely involves potential leaks from a Goldman Sachs investment banker and French banker."

"It makes sense for it to be in the investment banking division, because they have access to material non-public information when they're putting deals together," our source said. "Considering this has become a bit of witch hunt, it may just be couple of junior guys who sent a couple of bad emails."

So, we wait.

------


And isn't MFS Global tied to Merrill/BoA ?

[Demeter]

54. Japan and Australia close in on rare earth deal

Japan is close to securing agreement with Australia for the supply of rare earths, key minerals used in the manufacturing of products from car batteries to military equipment, in a strategic move that will help cuts its dependence on China

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/6VNDIH/PNGIU/RN5AYN/FXUWW9/N9/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

56. Germany’s unlikely optimists

Evidence is growing that Germany’s consumers are setting aside their reluctance to spend – in a trend that should benefit its neighbours and please the US

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/6VNDIH/PNGIU/RN5AYN/RNCRRK/N9/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

58. Greek reforms on track, says IMF-EU

Greece’s is still ‘broadly on track’ with reforms but a new wave of measures is needed to create sustained recovery, say representatives of the European Union and IMF

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/6VNDIH/PNGIU/RN5AYN/18KG85/N9/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

59. US group gives China details of nuclear technology

Westinghouse Electric has handed over more than 75,000 documents to its Chinese customers as the initial part of a technology transfer agreement that it hopes will secure the company’s place in the world’s fastest-growing nuclear market

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/6VNDR7/SUO9T/HD6H6H/40Y66U/B7/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO ALL THAT NATIONAL SECURITY, NUCLEAR EMBARGO, PROTECT THE TECHNOLOGY BASE CRAP?

[Demeter]

62. Saudi prince snaps up 1% stake in GM

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud is to invest $500m in the Detroit carmaker’s initial public offering, citing the group’s global strength, especially in China and Brazil

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/6VNDR7/SUO9T/HD6H6H/GKUWWU/B7/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

63. FDIC bad loan reserves down 4%

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said that reserves for bad loans at the largest US banks declined in the third quarter for the first time since the financial crisis began

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/6VNDR7/SUO9T/HD6H6H/3OD889/B7/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=24

[Demeter]

66. $20bn BP fund enough for spill costs

BP will have to pay out ‘billions’ in compensation to those affected by the Deepwater oil spill but it should be covered by the $20bn fund set up by the oil company, according to the lawyer administering claims

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/OZMCDD/GK89GK/XBAN6/ZBE4HS/LQBXOF/PJ/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23

[Robbien]

76. Because so far they have denied half of claims submitted

and ignored almost every claim from poor zip codes.


Not surprising that banksters want to set up a fund such as this to reimburse anyone who was harmed by their fraud in the foreclosure process.

[Demeter]

69. Four groups eye bids for AIG’s Nan Shan

The resurrected sale attempt reflects AIG's determination to continue to strike deals to repay the $180bn it received from the US government

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/OZMCDD/GK89GK/XBAN6/ZBE4HS/72Q8R4/PJ/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=23

[Demeter]

72. Nissan to shift output to dollar economies

The Japanese carmaker is planning to shift the balance of its production and support functions towards dollar-linked economies to protect itself against currency volatility, says its chief executive

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/D4HX4G/SUO9T/40R4B5/BMRG3N/6C/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=22

[bread_and_roses]

79. "a massive new structural downshift in wages"

This really belongs in WE - where I'll repost it - but if I post it now I won't forget it amid the usual swamp of daily bad news.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/11/24-2

Firms See Long-Sought Goal in Sight: Major Pay Cuts

by Roger Bybee

The outlines of a massive new structural downshift in wages are emerging more and more clearly.

The largest wage-cutting wave since the Great Depression has already been sweeping the United States for the last couple years in response to the Great Recession. At small firms, many of these pay cuts have been viewed as a temporary means of reducing costs until the recession is fully ended.

... Not this time around.The recession camouflages a far more insidious and long-lasting corporate strategy: Instead of temporary pay cuts to get through a few tough months, major corporations have something very, very different in mind.

... As I reported on this site in various articles, the two-tier trend has emerged this year in Wisconsin at Mercury Marine (see here, here, and here) and Harley-Davidson (here, here, and here) and was demanded at the Kohler Corp. (here and here.) In each case, the powerful threat of relocating jobs provides the corporations overwhelming leverage to impose their low-wage vision of the future for working people.

And nothing - nothing nothing nothing - is being done to address this from our so-called "leaders."

My beloved labor movement damn well better get it's ass in gear, as we used to say, and begin mobilizing people around our very real immanent serfdom.

[jtuck004]

81. A friend joined the Army a few months ago, after he got out of

vet school (one way to get the bills paid) and they stationed him in El Paso, TX. He and his wife just had their new baby a couple mos ago, so they bought a house. Sent me a picture from the Real Estate site, where it showed that houses in the area averaged about 150,000.

He bought it for 60,000. And it wasn't a repo, wasn't in terrible condition. Just a house.

"JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Nov. 23, 2010 – The October Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS) shows that accelerated foreclosure referral activity over the last several months has pushed the foreclosure inventory rate to all-time highs. As of the end of October 2010, foreclosure inventories are 7.4 times historical averages and rising."

...

http://forex.einnews.com/pr-news/242364-lps-mortgage-monitor-report-october-data-shows-foreclosure-inventories-at-all-time-high-rates

It's amazing to me, what is going on. While people are worrying about other things, the economy is folding around our ears. Health care is a good thing, but when you have no job to pay for it, it doesn't help that much, and the health insurance companies don't even bother to hide the fact that they have become our century's equivalent of robber barons. Equal pay - great, 'cause now nearly 30 million men and women have equality with no paycheck or not enough part-time hours to pay their bills. Pension funds are horribly underfunded, states and municipalities only still running because of loans from the feds or from the state. Large job growth in home health aide, retail - low wage jobs. Industrial capacity more or less gone, (well, we still make pooper scoopers - I think - and fake windmills for gardens). Housing still has a ways to drop in many markets (real estate agents are keeping prices up on the MLS sites, but when the deal is done it comes in multiple tens of thousands lower). Last I saw there is a 9-10 year backlog of real estate for sale across the nation, and that is increasing. Apartment complexes are the new investment, going up as fast as they can fill them with families that have been foreclosed on. Public jobs have already taken some hits, and are going to take more one of these days, certainly in number, possibly in salary, 'cause the tax base just isn't there to support them any longer.

People are just giddy about profits at corporations - well, yeah, if you close a third of your locations and lay off 20% of your people, your profits are going to be up by significant percentages. Duh. But you won't have the tax base to pay for the roads, police, fire, and schools that keep all that business humming.

I am willing to believe that the incoming administration did not know how bad things were, that their advisors (many from the last administration, who were not exactly masters of finance and economies, as it turns out) lied to them or didn't provide the best counsel.

But dang, what is holding them back? Anyone with two brain cells to run together can understand that we need to educate people to change their buying habits so it benefits their country, and combine this with a huge jobs program that rebuilds our capacity to create wealth along with training and educating people for our 22nd century.

30 million plus people out of work or underemployed would be far happier, and I think more likely to vote for a continuation of policies that put them back to work. Why wouldn't the focus shift to them? Are they just afraid to stand up and show the people our economic status - where's Ross Perot and his charts(?) - and what it is going to require for us to quit going down the tubes?

Yet, nothing, except some good and bad ideas from the catfood commission, and the Repubs rule the airwaves.

What the bloody hell is going on? Are they all just so bought and paid for that there is no hope? Are they afraid of telling people where we are at? Is Geithner, Bernanke, et al our defacto president? When the Health Insurance Reform bill was being debated they were telling us that 35-45 million people didn't have insurance. Now they pass the bill, and 2 years later 50 million people don't have insurance. The Democratic party, my party, is the party of jobs, yet all they seem to be able to do is pound their chest and insist that we should all be grateful for these barely helpful measures they passed while millions more people were losing their homes? Lots of people I know feel the sand disappearing under their feet, and they may well grab for something different in the next election, despite the warnings that it could be worse. You can only use that excuse once, I expect.

[Ghost Dog]

111. Nicely put.

Rebuild our capacity to create wealth along with training and educating people for our 22nd century.

This will not be achieved by the actual, to choose the politest term I can come up with right now, status quo.

[DemReadingDU]

115. Continue forward, full speed ahead

until the global Ponzi implodes.
Then TPTB will tell us that they never saw it coming.

[florida08]

83. dear God

Evil has broken down the door

[Ghost Dog]

99. Your/Our leaders all agree

that this is the best (for their interests) way to go.

[jtuck004]

87. The Scam of the Deficit Crisis -

Found this on Barry Ritholtz site, at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/the-scam-of-the-deficit-crisis/

It leads to an e-book by Jonathan Tasini, It's Not Raining, We're Getting Peed On - The Scam Of The Deficit Crisis"
at http://workinglife.org/wiki/index.php?page=It's+Not+Raining,+We're+Getting+Peed+On:+the+Scam+of+the+Deficit+Crisis
or which you can download at http://www.workinglife.org/imgbin/wlimgs/ItsNotRaining-JonathanTasini.pdf

Addresses, directly, several of the myths being proffered by the two major political parties, talks about Rubin's hyprocisy in remving the protections that led to the Great Investment Bank swindle we are now paying for, Pete Peterson and his role in the great social security "emergency" scam, and highlights many of the voices we are hearing from today. Some darn handy information to have when the relatives start talking about the deficit crisis - you can simply say "No, sir, there is no crisis", and proceed to explain why not.

Just make sure you have the Cranberry sauce safe in a safe place, 'cause facts can
sometimes induce a little disagreement with those predisposed to ignoring them.

Excerpts: (This is published under a Creative Commons License, so I think it gives me a little
more leeway to copy paragraphs...)

Hands up! This is a stick-up. I want your retirement, your health
care, and I want YOU to pay even MORE to pay for the roads, schools
and air you breathe.

....

"Instead of making sure everyone has a good job, we play a game. We
pretend like a poverty-level minimum wage is acceptable pay for fulltime
work. Adjusted for inflation, the minimum wage today is what it
was in the 1950s—more than half a century ago. To really make ends
meet at minimum wage pay, two people in a household have to work
three full-time minimum wage jobs."
...
I also decided to write this book because I was amazed at how many
logical, fair people had swallowed the deficit and debt “crisis” storyline. I
would hear it in the streets and in small gatherings: “oh, I’m a Democrat
and I support the president and health care but…we are spending too
much money”.
I repeat: there is no deficit or debt “crisis”.
...

Here is a great way of thinking about this, courtesy of David
Johnston, a writer on taxes. If you had to live only on the money you
saved in the best year of the many tax cuts Congress has passed since
1964, how much would you have? If you were in the bottom 90 percent
of the population: less than $800.

If you were in the top 400 of the wealthiest people in the country,
your best year would bring a whole lot more: $66.5 million, which, if you
invested it at just 5 percent, would give each of those 400 people
$247,000 a month to live on.xvi I think I could squeak by on almost a
quarter of a million bucks per month. How about you?

[ozymandius]

89. Of course it's a scam.

Wealth extraction flows in one direction: away from that bottom 90%. It does not recirculate under a scheme in which it costs more just to be alive.

[jtuck004]

88. Cranberry Relish Recipe

Not cooked, a different way to make cranberries...

Ingredients
2 cups washed raw cranberries
2 skinned and cored tart apples
1 large, whole (peel ON) seedless orange, cut into sections
1 to 2 cups granulated sugar (depending on how sweet you would like your relish to be)

You put all this through a grinder and let it sit for 24 hours in the fridge - I add toasted pecans to the mix

http://simplyrecipes.com/recipes/cranberry_relish/

'cause hey, you gotta eat. And this is pretty cheap...

[ozymandius]

98. That's a keeper. Thanks.

That will be on my table in December.

[jtuck004]

116. Sorry, meant to edit - I only use about 3/4 cup sugar. Seems to work. n/t

[ozymandius]

97. Averages end high on ho-hum volume.

Dow 11,187.28 150.91 (1.37%)
Nasdaq 2,543.12 48.17 (1.93%)
S&P 500 1,198.35 17.62 (1.49%)
10-Yr Bond 2.91% 0.15
NYSE Volume 3,704,503,500.00
Nasdaq Volume 1,560,426,125.00

[Demeter]

108. Totally Unbelievable

Why even pretend to have a market any more?

[Tansy_Gold]

112. UPDATE THE COVER PAGE, OZY. DELAY CONVICTED

okay so he's not really a boooosh administration official, but he's close enough, eh?

[ozymandius]

114. He will get a dishonorable mention.

:woohoo:

[Roland99]

117. Makes for a Happy(er) Thanksgiving, though!

:)


Happy Thanksgiving, SMW denizens!

[hamerfan]

118. And to you too, Roland99!

Happy Thanksgiving to all the SMW brethren and sistren!
hamerfan

[Roland99]

119. And now it's snowing!

not gonna stick but it's pretty to look at.

48 hours I'll be back in the warmth of FL but loving this for now. :)