Hubbert's Third Prophecy

[robertpaulsen]

Fascinating look at possibilities for the future. I'm curious to hear what people think about the feasibility for the economic solutions that the author proposes. Not from the perspective of political will but strictly mathematical: could the proposed solutions work?

Hubbert's Third Prophecy


In light of recent events such as the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street I thought it would be pertinent to review Hubbert's Third Prophecy about the cultural crisis he expected. He wrote about it in the attached article entitled "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History". In case you are not familiar with Hubbert's first two prophecies, he predicted both the US and world oil peak very accurately.



In 1956 Hubbert predicted the US oil peak would be sometime between 1969 and 1971. For this he was ridiculed and laughed off the face of the earth (almost). Turned out the US oil peak was in 1970. This is something the drill-baby-drill, it's all the environmentalists' fault, ditto heads don't know anything about.

Next in 1974 Hubbert predicted the world oil peak to happen about 1998. However he DID say that if OPEC were to restrict the supply, then the peak would be delayed by 10-15 years which would put it at 2008-2013, or exactly right. Here is what Hubbert's prediction (to scale by MBPD) looks like overlayed onto a reasonably close estimate of the actual global oil peak which started in 2005 and has continued as a plateau up to now.



OK, now is anyone willing to make a bet that Hubbert's THIRD prophecy is wrong? Didn't think so. Here it is:



snip

Hubbert didn't mention one other notable feature of a debt-money system. It systematically pumps wealth from the bottom 80% of the population in wealth to the top 20%. The bottom 80% pay interest while the top 20% collects it, and of course most of the interest is collected by the top 10%. When all money is debt, that's a lot of money going to the top. The Occupy Wall Street people aren't stupid. They know the game is rigged.

more...

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2011/11/hubberts-third-prophecy.html

The text of the original document "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History" by M. King Hubbert can be found here: http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/CDAE170/2003/Hubbert-growth.PDF

[Speck Tater]

1. Any problem that requires rational behavior to solve will NEVER be solved by human politicians.

The human race is doomed.

[robertpaulsen]

2. I pray for rational and logical. We need President Spock now.

The Vulcan, not the Doctor. Although Dr. Spock wouldn't make a bad President either.

[Speck Tater]

7. I trust that "praying for rationality" is a kind of sarcastic irony. At least I hope it is. nt

[robertpaulsen]

8. Sarcasm with a touch of dark humor.

:evilgrin:

[vonZapfenau]

10. Dr. Spock & Dr. King

Little-known fact: Dr. Martin Luther King was contemplating a presidential campaign for the 1968 election, and his chosen running mate would have been Dr. Benjamin Spock. Dr. Spock ran for president himself in 1972 on the People's Party ticket.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Spock#Political_involvement

[napoleon_in_rags]

3. pg. 125 & 126. The optimism!

Oh, for the days of Star Trek and Spock when this was written.

[Mnemosyne]

4. Stinking lazy Wealthfare Queens. Thank you for the great OP, Robert. It's criminal, imho, they also

hold the power to punish harshly when you are not paying them regular interest, the old 'credit rating punishment'.

They have no humanity, no conscience and no honor.

[bemildred]

5. He was quite right, IMHO, the details remain to be seen, but it's already happening. nt

[Uncle Joe]

6. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, robertpaulsen.

[jxnmsdemguy65]

9. This was an excellent piece linked at Energy Bulletin ...

I encourage those interested in this piece to read about Dennis Kucinich's HR 2990, the American Monetary NEED Act, and to contact their Congressional legislations and urge them to take a look at it. It's time to broaden the search for a solution. We NEED total reform of the monetary system!

http://www.monetary.org/american-monetary-need-act

[Sherman A1]

11. Thanks for Posting

:kick: