CMT
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Oct-06-03 12:30 PM
Original message |
I think scores of Indpendents will move from Arnie to McLintock |
|
I think that Cruz will not be the big beneficiary on the second ballot. I think Tom McClintock will be--and in the end this will help Cruz Bustamante.
Right now McClintock is polling around 15% in most polls. Arnold is between 35-40 percent and Cruz is between 25-32 percent.
I think the revelations regarding Arnold will hurt him with voters who still want Davis out and may think that Bustamante is no improvement. I think they will switch instead to McClintock especially more conservative independents and republicans who may have gotten on the Arnie bandwagon when it looked like he was a sure winner and before the extent of these revelations came out.
My guess is that McClintock could raise his vote total to about 20-22 percent. Various third party candidates will get about 6%. Bustamante should get at least 35-40% (after all this is California a traditionally democratic state). Arnie will get in the low to mid 30's.
|
barbaraann
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Oct-06-03 12:34 PM
Response to Original message |
|
And I can't help myself--I have a lot of respect for McClintock.
|
Noordam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Oct-06-03 12:44 PM
Response to Original message |
2. IMHO, there will be a lot of Females that vote for anybody but |
papau
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Oct-06-03 12:50 PM
Response to Original message |
3. 1.6 million voted by absentee before scandals brook |
|
That should help Arnold.
It will be close.
|
CMT
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Oct-06-03 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
|
but remember too absentee voting began when the polls showed Cruz Bustamante ahead and the recall only narrowly winning.
|
realFedUp
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Oct-06-03 01:36 PM
Response to Original message |
5. What are McClintock's numbers today? |
|
If he catches up to Arnold, Republicans will vote against the Recall.
|
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Fri May 31st 2024, 11:58 PM
Response to Original message |