ELECTION MODEL (TIA) : OBAMA'S TREND ONLY MARGINALLY EXCEEDS KERRY, SO...

[tiptoe]

Election Model Trend: Obama vs. Kerry
TruthIsAll

September 19, 2008

In Sept. 2004, John Kerry’s poll numbers and projected vote share declined sharply right after the Republican Convention. This year was no different: Obama’s 4% national poll lead evaporated to a 2% deficit. But like Kerry, Obama’s poll numbers quickly rebounded.

This post compares the 2008 Election Model polling and projection trend to the 2004 Election Model. The state polling data source was electoral-vote.com for both.

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Forewarned is forearmed. It could very well happen again.

full post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7121622&mesg_id=7121622 -x

[The Liberal Thinker]

1. Kerry's numbers did not quickly rebound.

It was long after the Republican convention --- almost a month, before Kerry had cut Bush's lead of 9+ points to only a 2-point deficit. Kerry was never close to winning.