WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
"Bitter-gate": Where Do We Go Now?
....Below we outline the major developments that could drive the story down one path or the other....
* ADS: This is one of the few elements that will determine the direction of the controversy that is within the control of the candidates. Obama went up with his first post-bitter spot yesterday -- an ad featuring Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) in which the junior Senator from Pennsylvania makes only oblique reference to the controversy. "Barack Obama knows Pennsylvania is hurting," says Casey. "He can unite America and bring change."
Clinton, on the other hand, took the issue head on with an ad that went up last night. Not only does the ad repeat the questionable quote but it also features Pennsylvanians condemning it not Clinton....What's clear from the first two ads after the initial thrust and parry over the bitter comments is that Clinton is going to do everything in her power to make sure every voter in the state has heard Obama's remarks before the primary next Tuesday. Does Obama respond -- a strategy that could escalate the debate over what he said? And does Clinton take this ad to Indiana and North Carolina?
* POLLS: Polling holds the key to understanding which direction this story is headed. Everyone in the political world is waiting expectantly for some good data from states -- Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina in particular -- and national polls that ask voters what their impressions were of Obama's words....
* SUPERDELEGATES: For the last two months or so, there has been a story circulating just outside of the public view that there are a large number of superdelegates who are privately committed to Obama and waiting for the right moment to pledge their allegiance. Do Obama's comments freeze these superdelegates in their current undecided pose? Or, more problematic for his campaign, do some significant number of undecided superdelegates side with Clinton -- citing Obama's comments as their prime reason for choosing the New York senator?...
* PENNSYLVANIA: Heading into last weekend, as the controversy was festering, the general consensus was that Obama was closing the gap with Clinton in the Keystone State. If Obama loses by a significantly wider margin in next Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary, it will almost certainly be ascribed to his ill-advised San Francisco comments....
* THE POPE:...The more attention the Pope gets, the less time cable television will have to devote to Obama....
* X-FACTORS: In a story drawing this much media attention, there are bound to be side stories that crop up that could -- if played right -- turn into main stories and take away time and attention from the initial comments....
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/04/bittergate_where_do_we_go_now.html?hpid=topnews