US 'Virtually Certain' to Fall Into A New Recession: Rosenberg

[Joanne98]

The US economy is almost certainly headed back into a double dip recession, and economists aren't seeing it because they're using "the old rules of thumb" that don't apply this time, well-known economist David Rosenberg told CNBC.

Consumers' focus on shedding debt rather than spending will prevent the economy from growing and bring a halt to the recovery, said Rosenberg, a former Merrill Lynch economist who now works at Gluskin Sheff, an advisory firm based in Toronto.

"The risks of a double-dip recession—if we ever got out of the first one—are actually a lot higher than people are talking about right now," he said. "I think that it's almost a foregone conclusion, a virtual certainty."

Rosenberg has long been pessimistic on the economy, believing that persistently high unemployment, weak economic indicators and massive debt-cutting—deleveraging—by consumers and businesses will send the economy into a double dip.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38691272

[qb]

1. I never knew we came out of the last one.

:shrug:

[SocialistLez]

2. We need a WPA. The private sector has shown they cannot be trusted to create the jobs we need. NT

[AndyA]

3. Banks aren't lending money. Companies are sitting on profits, not hiring.

Consumers aren't spending because they can't borrow money and they can't get a job.

Obama's Administration ought to spend less time trying to be bipartisan and coming up with cute insults to lob at progressives, and do something that will really help the party and the people:

WE. NEED. JOBS.

Tell the Republicans to go to hell, and start telling it like it is for a change.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. You can't cite bad economic numbers here. It might upset people.

:sarcasm:

[PassingFair]

5. It is pretty much excepted as fact elsewhere in the world.

We are living in a state of suspended animation.

Weird.

[westerebus]

6. Just when I was getting used to this one.

Let me guess, this has something to do with drug testing someone's gawd dam pony?

I hate it when that happens.

[Selatius]

7. Don't expect Obama to create a WPA or a PWA any time soon. This Congress is tooo conservative.

It'll go down in flames on the Senate floor. These aren't the same kind of Democrats as far as Labor goes that existed back in the 1930s.

[Warpy]

8. What new recession? The bottom 95% didn't see any sort of recovery

except maybe their kids weren't crammed 50 to a classroom and using last year's books or a washboard road at a stoplight got repaved.

There's going to be another dip in the Dow, something that remains overvalued as too many investment dollars at the top chase too few equities. With corporate profits declining because the same old recession is ongoing at the bottom, those dollars are going to start to look elsewhere to find paper profits.

However, I remain cautiously optimistic because everybody knows there is a problem with the way business has been done over the last 30 years and even the fat cats at the top are beginning to realize the demand side of the economic equation also needs attention.

Short term, however, is going to suck.

[Crazy Dave]

9. A "new" recession is correct

Because what we are going through now is the new normal.

Just wait until 2012 when unemployment is at 11% and most hourly wages are down to $8 an hour, we'll all be told how great we had things during the first two years of this administration.

"Thank you sir may I have another?"

[jtuck004]

10. The NBER has not identified the end of the 2007 recession...

according to their statement here..., despite the exhortations of the Wall Street Journal that Despite NBER Statement, Recession Is Likely Over.

Or maybe from a paid job at the WSJ things don't look so bad...