Blue-collar Heads Up: Freight-on-the-belt index falls.

[FredStembottom]

Hi Folks,

I have been in the air-freight world for 32 years now. And have found that our daily freight volumes are uncannily accurate (and often the first) when it comes to seeing economic slowdowns.

All summer long, what I call the Freight-on-the-belt Index has been like a roller coaster ride.

The word "sputtering" comes to mind. This is somewhat typical as Summer is historically the lowest point on the quick-ship calendar each year (however, this years ups and downs were steeper)

After Labor Day, it's like flipping a switch on - the freight volume rises instantly and ramps up to the high-point of the year: the Holiday season in December.

We seemed to get the post Labor Day spike OK and on-time..... but starting about 2 weeks ago, the floor fell out. A gap. A big one. Big enough to cause an instant halt to the hiring that always occurs at this time of year.

I have never seen this before. If the Holiday sales season turns out to be the worst in 70 years, you heard it here first.

[grasswire]

1. aw, you dropped Lapham

But Cannonball Adderly is pretty cool too.

Thanks for your assessment of the freight on the belt index. I wonder how the Baltic Dry index is. Somethin's up. (Or down.) All hands inside the ride.

[Po_d Mainiac]

2. here's another "home grown index"

The 'Mandrel Wire Index'

Iron mandrel wire is used by the light bulb industry as the molds in which filaments and exciters are formed. The wire never makes into the final production, but is a core element in the production process.

The 'family' business is the production of iron mandrel wire. We are the sole supplier to one of the "big 2" manufacturers of long tube florescent lights in the USA. (That business has been in existence since 1968 and "Made in the USA" is stamped on every shipment)

We draw a lot of different wire sizes for varied applications, but the coils used in florescent lights are the only application for particular diameters. So we can tell by our orders what the anticipated lighting needs are for much of the commercial sector.

Look up when you walk into any large facility covered by a roof (factory, Mall, grocery store, etc)....What do you see.......See those long light tubes? Those are what I'm talking about.

The 60day outlook of the MWI substantiates the FOTB...(60 days is our normal lead time) Orders/shipments have been flat for over 5 years..We should have seen a bump up as the day light hours shorten.

ps......We had a first hand look at outsourcing before it became a household term. We used to ship product to Three Rivers Canada, Towanda Pa, Paris Tx, Waldoboro Me, Lewiston Me, Bloomfield NJ and probably some other sites I've forgotten. Only one of those addresses is currently receiving product.

[formercia]

3. The troops in the trenches always know more than the Generals.

The Generals look at the 'Big Picture', but it's those localized trends that are often the deciding indicator.

[eilen]

4. September was a very bad month economically

It was also a banner month in ED visits, and hospital admissions. So much that every hospital in our city was crammed over full of people-- no epidemic, no flu season.

In October, it is like a switch has been turned. We are still at census, we have a little overflow but it is stable. We are not 50-80 patients over.

Hiring has started (while weak) for holiday retail.

My bet is that at the holiday time if not right afterward, the spigot will be at full blast again.

[dixiegrrrrl]

5. I think we need a continuing thread of this type of information.

Don't know how often ( at least weekly, tho, I should think)
The local eyes and ears are vital right now.
Thank you for sharing what you are seeing.

BIG K&R for this.

and btw.....the trucking index was reported last week, wayyyyyy down.

[FredStembottom]

6. To clarify 1 point

Not only had we seen a stall-out locally but nationwide management stunningly backed up our local observations by halting the traditional holiday hiring blitz.

Unprecedented.