Are all 150,000 troops in Iraq in extreme danger?

[Alpharetta]

Are these troops in much greater danger than the White House, Rumsfeld, or the media has let on?

I read about a scenario recently and haven't heard it debunked. Can't remember where I read it, so maybe someone here saw it and can give me a pointer.

We have 150,000 or so military in Iraq. Their supply line runs through Kuwait and the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran wanted to cut off that supply line, they could. Of course, we'd start bombing them so they're unlikely to do that.

Regardless, that supply line is long and thin, has extremely high traffic requirements to support 150,000+ military, so might be difficult to protect from factions in a civil war. Somehow rockets made it to the Hezbollah in Lebanon, so it seems possible missiles and boats could make it to factions in Iraq who want to shut down our Gulf supply lines.

The logistics of evacuating 150,000 troops spread out all over Iraq is a lot different than the logistics of invading and establishing bases. Withdrawal during a civil war would be an extremely uncertain venture. We'd have a challenge keeping the supply lines open and keeping certain bases operational so those personnel can protect the roads and the other bases as they close.

For the invasion, we staged our personnel and equipment in Kuwait. We may not have the luxury of staging the withdrawal outside the range of warfare.

I imagine since we shot our way in and we could shoot our way out. But I wouldn't bet against significant casualties and loss of equipment and weapons to the civil war factions. When we invaded, we bypassed Iraqi armies so we could reach Baghdad fast. Those armies went home with their weapons. They might use them as we exit.

[Lerkfish]

1. actually, its more precarious than that.

If Iran is attacked, they can retaliate against our troops in Iraq with anything they have. conventional or otherwise. What do they care? its not their country.

its the classic case of putting all your eggs in one basket.

[endarkenment]

2. Unless Iran has some really great antiship weapons

I do not think that the supply line is all that fragile. We have total air superiority. The Iranians can harass shipping in the gulf but probably cannot shut it down or seriously threaten our fleet. We will win any conventional force confrontation. What the Iranians can do and the Iraqis are doing is slowly bleed us to death. It is asymmetrical warfare and we are losing.