By ETHAN BRONNER
Published: September 10, 2011
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RAMALLAH, West Bank — Less than two weeks before Palestinians plan to defy the Obama administration by requesting membership and statehood recognition at the United Nations, there is a growing fear that the Arab-Israeli conflict is entering an explosive new phase.
A Palestinian decision to shift its statehood quest toward international legal and political pressure on Israel, combined with Israeli fear and truculence at a time of regional upheaval, has many predicting disaster, especially after the storming of Israel’s Cairo embassy and the expulsion of its ambassador from Turkey.
“Israel is already facing hostility from Egypt, Turkey and Gaza,” a senior Western diplomat said. “It will react to a Palestinian statehood bid with punitive measures in the West Bank. Congress will probably cut off aid to the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority could collapse. We’re watching a potential train wreck.”
In response, Palestinians say that their lives have long been a train wreck — an Israeli-induced one of settlement and occupation — and that it is time for a radical shift in approach. They say their United Nations effort, along with accession to international legal forums, will be followed by renewed negotiations with clearer guidelines. The Israelis say the move will kill the chance of future talks.
In fact, no one knows where it could lead. The details of the United Nations membership bid are still being worked out — on Monday, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, is due in Cairo to present his plan to the Arab League — and some of what is happening is brinkmanship. But on the ground there are ominous hints. The Israeli Army is holding dress rehearsals for Palestinian riots. Radical settlers vandalized mosques and an Israeli military base last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/world/middleeast/11palestinians.html