(Damn - all that hard work and I put the wrong chamber in the title - my bad!)
Over lunchtime I was thinking about our chances of getting a democratic majority in the house. It's going to be a tough job because that means we need to keep every seat we have (including Lieberman) and hope for a few favors from the republicans to boot
- Akaka, Daniel- (D - HI) – Safe D
- Allen, George- (R - VA) – Probably R unless Mark Warner tosses his hat into the ring
- Bingaman, Jeff- (D - NM) – Probably D
- Burns, Conrad- (R - MT) – Probably R. We need to see how the Abramoff case affects Burns who is in deep
- Byrd, Robert- (D - WV) – Safe D
- Cantwell, Maria- (D - WA) – Probably D
- Carper, Thomas- (D - DE) – Safe D
- Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI) – Probably R – Republicans might be going after Chafee in the primaries. If they succeed in outing him it might open up this race for a democratic winner
- Clinton, Hillary- (D - NY) – Safe D
- Conrad, Kent- (D - ND) – Probably D – Sorry, anytime I see Dakota I still wonder how a democrat gets elected.
- Corzine, Jon- (D - NJ) (open) – Probably D – I think it all boils down to whom Gov-Elect Corzine appoints to fill his position and go up against the son of popular former Republican governor Tom Keane
- Dayton, Mark- (D - MN) (open) – Toss-up. This use to be a safe D state but in 2002 & 2004 Republicans made significant pickups including Governor & one of the Senate seats. But lately Republicans have been very unpopular in Minnesota. This all boils down to who each party has as a candidate
- DeWine, Mike- (R - OH) – Should be D Pick-up but with Diebold I’m gonna safe Safe R. Seriously, who am I kidding to think that somewhat popular DeWine, a member of the highly unpopular & corrupt Ohio Republican party, should be an easy pickoff by either Sherrod Brown or Democratic Darhling Paul Hackett. But Blackwell has the state locked down which almost guarantees republican wins simply because of corrupt voting systems.
- Ensign, John- (R - NV) – Probably R. I barely put it in probably, because there isn’t a strong candidate running against Ensign. But it’ll be interesting to see if Minority Leader can sway some votes to help unseat Ensign
- Feinstein, Dianne- (D - CA) Safe D
- Frist, Bill- (R - TN) (open) Leaning R – Frist is retiring because he wants to run for president and he can’t risk a lost in 2006 either with his election or as majority leader. He’s playing it safe and ‘retiring’ in order to leave on top. Democrats have a strong candidate with Harold Ford but this southern state has been a republican stronghold for awhile.
- (Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT) Safe R
- Hutchison, Kay- (R - TX) Safe R
- Jeffords, James- (I - VT) (open) Probably Independent pickup. Bernie Sanders is the man. Jesus could come back to earth and still not be able to beat Sanders. Although Independent Sanders always sides with the democrats so technically it’ll be a pickup for us.
- Kennedy, Edward- (D - MA) Safe D - Jesus probably couldn’t beat Kennedy either
- Kohl, Herb- (D - WI) Safe D
- Kyl, Jon- (R - AZ) Probably R – Depends on the candidate but this is borderline going into Safe. Is Neopalitano running?
- Lieberman, Joseph- (D - CT) Sorry folks – Safe D.
- Lott, Trent- (R - MS) Safe R if he doesn’t retire. If he does, with the affects of Katrina on the state of Mississippi, a democrat might be able to have an offside chance but even then I would make the state Leaning R
- Lugar, Richard- (R - IN) Safe R
- Nelson, Bill- (D - FL) Probably D – Kathering “Cruella DeVille” Harris is running against Nelson and we know about the state of voting in Florida (rivaled only by Ohio). Nelson is polling strong against Harris but with the state of voting in Florida who knows what will happen
- Nelson, Ben- (D - NE) Probably D – this is like any of the Dakotas – you scratch your head and wonder how we got the seat but thankfully (well for most of us democrats) this moderate will keep his seat in 2006
- Santorum, Rick- (R - PA) Probably D Pick-up – the only state I can say without a doubt that will be in democratic hands by 2006. Probably Democratic nominee is Bob Casey Jr, but personally I think Satan could run against Rick Santorum and we’d still win the seat. If Rick wants a political career after 2006 he might be smart and ‘retire’ like his buddy Frist is in order to save face. Who knows, maybe John Warner will retire in Virginia and Rick can run for senate in his home state
- Sarbanes, Paul- (D - MD) (open) This should be a safe democratic seat but Maryland has been funny these past couple of years electing it’s first Republican governor in several decades. Of course said Republican governor isn’t that popular in his state and even his Lt. Gov is bailing by running for the open senate seat left by retiring Paul Sarbanes. Lt. Gov Michael Steele is African American but very conservative. Keeping this seat is going to all be based on who runs on the Democratic ticket
- Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME) – Safe R unless the rumors about Snowe retiring are true then I would make the state leaning R
- Stabenow, Debbie – Should be Safe D but I’m going with leaning D. Stabenow’s name has been link with the Abramhoff case. We’ll have to see how that pans out but it could put a damper in this popular senator
- Talent, James- (R - MO) - Tossup. McCaskill is suppose to be running against unpopular Talent. Missouri seems to switch parties every 2 years so right about now democrats are due for a pickup.
- Thomas, Craig- (R - WY) Safe R
Current count:
44 Democrats
1 Independent who sides with Democrats
55 Republicans
2006 Count
Right now I’m thinking it’s going to be +3 with pickups in Pennsylvania, Missouri and I’m going to go out on a limb with Tennessee. I really want to put Ohio in this column but Diebold prevents me
Chance for Democratic Majority:
At this time I think we’re going to need some help from the republicans. If Republicans manage to beat Chafee in the primaries Ithink they’re opening that race up wide for a democratic pickup. Chafee is very popular with both parties and there would be a backlash against the republicans.
We need to hope that the Abramhoff case affects Conrad Burns (and not Stabenow). Montana seems like a state we can’t win but then Brian Schwietzer did for governor in 2004 and he’s a very popular governor in that state.
I'm not sure where the 3rd seat is coming from and I'm worried that we migh lose one of three open democratic seats in Minnesota, Maryland or New Jersey.