The "Reid setting up the left" theory has a big hole in it

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I understand the theory. Essentially, that Reid gave the left what they want so they can see it is impossible. Presumably, then serious negotiations could take place with the hippies back in their box.

It's not ridiculous on its face but the theory has a serious hole... the bill cannot (as a practical mater) be amended in the Senate so there's no path to correction after the left learns its lesson. The bill would simply fail.

And I doubt anyone is thinking it can be picked up again the next week.

So if the Senate bill makes it to the Motion to Proceed phase (actually being presented to the Senate for debate) I think it sort of disproves the "treacherous Reid" theory.

On the other hand, if the bill is pulled back pre-introduction and re-written in the face of conservadem opposition the theory would be alive. Not necessarily true, but in the realm of possibility.

For some reason I am trusting Reid on this and am not a 'theory' proponent. I've never been a Reid fan but this feels to me like he is trying to do the right thing. (And I applaud his boldness.)

[BzaDem]

1. I think there are at least 20 Democrats that will vote with 40 Republicans to water it down.

If it becomes necessary to pass reform (i.e. after a series of failed cloture votes), I think there would be 20 Democrats that would vote for a comporomise amendment. 10 of them would probably jump at the chance, and the other 10 could probably be persuaded. The Republicans would have to vote in a block for it. While some might try to vote against the watering down amendment (since they want the bill not to pass), Lieberman/Nelson/Lincoln would have to tell Republicans that if not every single republican voted for the watering down amendment, they would vote in favor of cloture as it is now.

Of course, this is just my theory.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. That's interesting. But what's in it for the pugs?

Even if the republicans write the entire bill they will not vote for it. Their only goal is no bill.

So I don't see them offering any (sincere) assistance to any compromise, not matter how RW it is.

[Clio the Leo]

2. I am hoping......

.... that Lieberman etc. are seeing this as an opportunity to do some arm twisting .... pitch a fit until they get their way (if not regarding this bill, something else.) They dont want to waste this chance.

But ... "I just hope they know what they're doing." :)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. I am hopefully agnostic

I don't see a path to victory but who knows what goes on behind closed doors.

I am more than willing to be surprised

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. I am giving Reid the advantage of the doubt on this also

For those of us who would have given him hell if he didn't take this step, I really think we owe it to him to step up and back him for doing so now. Here is a Move On petition for that purpose:
http://pol.moveon.org/thankreid/index.html