Is Arizona turning Blue?

[Vet31203]

I recently read an article talking about the possiblity of Arizona turning Blue this election and going to either Senator Obama or Seantor Clinton. I thought this was amazing considering that is McCain's homestate.

Is there enough of a grassroots movement for us to take Arizona?

[Ptah]

1. Are you in Arizona?

[Vet31203]

6. No I am in Iowa

But it really surprised me, I thought people here would know best

William J Meyers for House 2008

[Juan_de_la_Dem]

2. A large influx from California

[drmeow]

3. Independents

It pretty much depends on which way the independents will go. We're about 33% dem/38% repub/29% indep. I don't think many registered dems will cross party lines this year. Some may not vote but that's true of any party. Whether repubs will given that "one of our own" is the candidate is hard to tell. Assuming there are not large crossovers, if 1/3 of the indep go dem, we could go Blue. We did go blue in '96 - but it may be that AZ likes the Clintons so we may only go blue if she's the candidate.

[Bigstevedude]

4. Because of McCain, I don't think it will turn blue

He was born there.

[Ptah]

5. He was born in Panama

[algoreagain]

15. I think it still constitutional

He can still run for president.

[NoodleBoy]

7. If anyone else was the republican nominee, maybe.

Now the only way to state would turn blue this year is if McCain was caught trying to hide the body of a male lobbyist he killed while buying drugs and smuggled children from-- and if Janet Napolitano was on the ticket.

Maybe it will in 2016, maybe sooner, but there's alot of fighting that needs to happen here first.

[Ptah]

8. I'm confident that the Dem. nominee will prevail in Pima County

[NoodleBoy]

9. Ok. that's one sixth of the state. what was your point?

[Vet31203]

10. What about that Congressman?

That guy that took those bribes and granted favors. Isnt he a McCain aid?

William J Meyers for House 2008

[NoodleBoy]

12. that's in northern arizona, and it's still a competitive race

unfortunately, some people don't see anything wrong with what Rick Renzi has done, and it won't effect their vote much.

The voting blocks that deliver wins to Republicans dominate the northeastern and southwestern parts of the state-- if you draw two lines in an X on the state, with lines starting roughly in each corner, we're talking almost exactly the upper left and lower right segments. Those are also the parts of the state that are growing the fastest, and they're growing in ways that give Democrats a natural disadvantage-- few public universities, many retirement communities, very, white and wealthy, and many, many gated communities.

[Ptah]

11. Half or Arizona's US Rep. are Dem.

Things are improving.

[Vet31203]

13. Would an

Obama-Richardson ticket put it into play?

William J Meyers for House 2008

[NoodleBoy]

14. maybe. richardson at the top would do more, but as VP he might not move that many votes

[Vet31203]

16. Who would it take

to move the votes? Any chance of California spill-over?

[NoodleBoy]

17. Janet Napolitano on a ticket without Hillary Clinton.

As far as California goes, it may look like it's in the Southwest but it's in the Pacific political column. AZ, NV, UT, NM, and CO are much more culturally and politically connected with each other than with California, although a CA candidate might swing votes in Nevada.

[Vet31203]

18. Thanks for update

I hope Arizona wont be guarenteed to McCain, we need a fight in all 50. Is there any Congressional, or senatorial races that can turn democrat? What is your state legislature looking like?

Vote Fallon!
http://www.equalitygiving.org/

[Ptah]

19. From today's Arizona Daily Star: Dems see rare chance to tilt scale in House

http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/230102


PHOENIX — Democrats are aiming to do something this year that has escaped
them since before the Beatles broke up or man landed on the moon — control the state House.

It's been more than 40 years since Democrats lost their majority in the 1966 election,
but this year, both sides are gearing up for a potential takeover.

The power grab is one Arizonans should take notice of and care about, the two parties say,
since it could determine how the state invests in things like education, health care and transportation.

It's also shaping the dialogue this legislative session, as lawmakers grapple with
a $1.2 billion budget shortfall.

[Vet31203]

20. Very Exciting

Any particular race that I can help get the word out about? I'd love to help and despite the fact that I live in Iowa, actually...I dont think that the importance of winning Arizona has escaped any democrat in the nation. We need Arizona!

Vote Fallon!

http://www.equalitygiving.org/

[palomitto]

21. We would have to wait for polls

The best way to confirm if the state is turning blue is examine some polls where voters are asked about their preference.
We'll wait and see.

[AZBlue]

22. I'll work my butt off to make it happen!

[Vet31203]

23. Thats what I love to hear!

I'm working my butt off here in Iowa!!

[Vet31203]

24. Any news on

Possible running mates? Do you know what states they are looking to turn?

PS. Really considering a summer in Arizona with the Democratic Party, or at least a few months, is there any contact numbers I can get from you guys?

[NoodleBoy]

25. www.azdem.com - Find the legislative district you're going to be in

contact the chair of the legislative district committee and see if you can help.

If they suck, look up Dan Saban for Sheriff if you're in Maricopa County (Phoenix, Tempe, Scottsdale, Glendale, Mesa, Chandler, etc). That will probably be the most important race in the state this cycle.

[JonLP24]

26. I saw a recent zogby poll

It was Obame 42%
McCain 38%
3% +/-

[Tesibria]

29. I think that was an outlier

www.fivethirtyeight.com -- right hand column (scroll down) -- shows that most AZ polls show an average of McCain +13.

[allthingsbarbara]

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[allthingsbarbara]

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Happy shopping, and thanks for helping!