Do Democrats have a chance at winning the Idaho governorship?

[bluestateguy]

Given the down-ballot Democratic victories over the last few elections in the Mountain West, I'm wondering if the election of a Democratic governor in Idaho is a possibility. I was reading the Almanac of American Politics entry on Governor Kempthorne and I noticed that he had lost a lot of popularity and had to fight to win reelection (which he did, by a margin of 56%-42%; in contrast to winning in 1998 by a margin of 68%-%29). I noticed that he proposed a major tax increase in 2003 too. Of course, I'm guessing that he won't be on the ballot in 2006, but I wonder if a Democratic candidate in 2006 could take advantage of an anti-Kempthorne backlash.

[Ediacara]

1. I doubt it

Idaho (with Nebraska) is the most conservative state in the country. The recent dem wins have been in Montana and Colorado, which are actually pretty purple, and not as red as many think can be a little tricky. Freudenthal won in Wyoming for the same reasons Schweitzer won in Montana, but I suspect that had his opponent's name not sounded like "be bought" and Bebout's son, upon being pulled over for speeding, not said, "you'll pay when my daddy becomes governor!", Dave might not have won.

[Liberty Belle]

2. Idaho had a Dem governor in the early '80s.

I remember that race well. I was covering election central as a newbie at the local newspaper.

When a national TV network called the election for the Republican, my editor wanted to do the same. I urged him to wait, noticing that results had not come in yet for tiny Moscow, Idaho--a college town in a different time zone than the rest of the state.

Sure enough, Moscow tipped the final tally to the Dem.