Topinka Leads Blago 48-37; Ties Gidwitz, Small Lead Over Oberweis

[tritsofme]

State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R) leads Governor Rod Blagojevich in an early look at the 2006 campaign for Governor of Illinois.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Topinka with 48% of the vote while the incumbent Governor attracts 37%.

Blagojevich does better against two other potential challengers. Blagojevich is tied with Ron Gidwitz at 40%. The Governor holds a very slight lead over Jim Oberweis, 43% to 39%.

None of the candidates are viewed favorably by 50% or more of Illinois voters. Blagojevich and Topinka have far higher name recognition than the other candidates.

Topinka is viewed favorably by 46% of voters and unfavorably by 30%. For Blagojevich, it's 40% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Gidwitz and Oberweis, a plurality don't know enough about them to have an opinion.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Illinois%20Governor%20January.htm

The most troubling piece of data coming out of this poll is that Blago only leads Obie by a statistically insignificant margin.

I could live with a Governor Topinka, Oberweis in the governor's mansion would be a disaster.

Blago should have dropped out months ago and planned on running for "president" or something like that. We should have run Lisa Madigan.

[Zynx]

1. I have predicted for months that this will be our one disappointment

on election night in the fall. I think generally we will do very well, but I think we lose the Illinois governorship.

[davsand]

2. Rod has not started campaigning yet.

Blag isn't really campaigning yet. Since there is no Dem Primary (that he's taking seriously, that is...) Blag is just doing the job of the Gov and not really hitting it hard yet. Polling data at this point really isn't too worrisome to me.

Blag's got a lot of money to work with and that is gonna help a lot. He'll be the best thing since sliced bread by the time the General hits and that massive re-election fund is spent on PR for him.



Laura

[AX10]

3. What if Topinka is the nominee?

She is 10% in front.

[tritsofme]

4. His campaign needs to have started weeks ago.

Not months from now.

The only thing anyone ever hears about Blago anymore are more "scandals"

A few million dollars and a clever ad campaign can't undo the damage that has been inflicted on Blago in the last year and a half or so.

An incumbent that expects to win reelection shouldn't be trailing by double digits nine months before an election.

[Radical Activist]

5. He has been campaigning almost non-stop.

His constant press tours around the state are in fact campaigning and they haven't worked. All the people who claimed that we need to stick with Blago for the sake of keeping a Democratic Governor need to pick someone new in the primary for the sake of keeping a Democratic Governor.

[kevsand]

6. That's probably not going to happen.

The Trib/WGN poll earlier this week is pretty clear: Blag will be the nominee...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0602080094feb08,1,1265812.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

On the other hand, it is way too early to panic about Topinka. Her primary lead is much smaller, in a more crowded field, and at a time when her opponents are just starting to really crank it up. She is still the favorite in that primary, but that could change rapidly.

And there are just too many variables to take the head-to-head poll as anything other than a cautionary note at this point. Assuming that he can stay out of jail, I expect Blag to run rings around Topinka this summer and fall.

Even so, the final tally may still be much closer than anyone cares for. Blag will carry Cook and a handful of downstate oasis counties, most notably the Metro-East (but not Champaign, btw). Topinka will score in the collar counties and the bulk of downstate. It all comes down to margins, and if Blag wins, it will be a squeaker.

[davsand]

7. Oh--you talking about "I'm not Rod" Eisen-"however the hell it's spelled"?

Oh yeah--THAT guy. I'm sure he'll poll well next to any Republican here in Illinois.

:banghead:

Sorry, but this is about like that scene in the movie Hoffa with Danny DeVito saying, "YOU want ME to give up Jimmy Hoffa?!" He's laughing while he says it...

-----

Look, Blag is out there in the public. I was wrong when I said he wasn't campaigning yet--he is getting out and around, which you should do if you are the current office holder seeking re-election.

That polling data, however, was the product of the time where Blag's active media campaign really hasn't started yet (The purchased TV, radio, and direct mail stuff is what I'm thinking of here.) The GOP candidates have had a lot of paid stuff on lately for that primary, and there have been no Dem responses to it (Nor would I expect there be, since this is a GOP PRIMARY.)

-------

I about fell out of my chair the other day when two of my favorite local Republicans were in my office telling me that they'll vote for Blag in the General over any of the current GOP candidates. They think he's done a good job on controlling spending and they intend to leave him there to do a job...

Frankly, I also got a lot more upbeat about Blag and his chances after I saw him on the Daily Show the other night.

For those of you that missed it, the segment was a comparison between some Highland, IL pharmacist that refused to fill a prescription for Emergency Contraceptives and Blag who signed a bill into law that requires all pharmacists in Illinois to dispense all prescriptions legally prescribed by a doc.

Blag said simply, (and this is not the exact quote) "If you have a moral issue with doing your job as a pharmacist--dispensing medications--then maybe you need to look for a new job."

It was a thing of beauty, and Blag is exactly on the target with that statement. He came across VERY well on the Daily Show, and THAT is the kind of media that helps a LOT.

Blag is NOT DOA. I agree, that it could be a more comfortable situation right now--Blag isn't perfect--but I'm very serious when I say I think he'll still be in office for another term.


Laura

[raising2moredems]

8. Soon they'll become cannibals

Oberweis has failed miserably at every run for office he's undertaken. Up until very recently, the pukes have been playing nice in the sandbox with each other but Judy didn't show up the other day for some cheesy get together and the rumbling has started. The pukes are putting on the dog in regards to Judy but I have serious doubts she'll get the nomination. The "she's not a republican" LTTEs are showing up with regularity. Ironically she IS the only Republican in the race. Brady has those lovely adds that he is "tough on taxes" then talks about good schools etc. but gives NO details on how he intends to fund all these "family" goodies. The right wing nuts are in a tailspin in this state and it won't be too long before they implode. Whether we'll see the true Republican party reappear is yet to be seen. If I had to wager money, I'd say not for a serious long time. It is blatantly obvious that they didn't take Crane's marginal win in 2002 seriously and lost the seat. They pushed Hyde out the door (no great loss) and everyone knows it but acts like it was old Henry's decision.

[benny05]

9. If the Count Wins

It is because many of us will vote 3rd party or not at all, which is probably what the governor is hoping for. However, I will be voting for Republican representatives to the ledge if I think they will fight for the Higher Ed system in general and not just pork around Chicago.

It's expected we might get a 1 percent raise--those of us who aren't in civil service, and have to work more than 37.5 hours a week (in my case, it's about 52.5 and will be higher since my institution just cut a half time professional position in my unit).

I'm already planning for my mom who lives in another state to come live with us because I cannot afford to send her money to help her, thanks to our governor. She would rather live on her own, but I've explained I have to sock away any extras because of our terrible government.

For those of us working for the state, I suggest taking out a 403b or adding more to your pension somehow--or a contingency plan of sorts. By the end of 8 years, the state will mirror the national scene: more debt because of pork, and raiding our pensions to pay for it, not realizing that many of us don't have SS (actually I do, but it won't amount to much). I don't mind paying for medicines for seniors or healthcare for kids; those are good things. But funding money to market for an electronic music concert around Chicago is poor use of money when we need resources for these other things, including supporting stem cell research, plus continue to pay for pensions PROMISED.

If you don't care about your state government and all of the services we do for you and improvements we'd like to make, and don't want to get rid of corrupt officials/employees that have been in the governor's cabinet, then you are voting for the right person.

Incidentally, I'm not so certain JBT would be any better than the current governor. Those of us who work for higher ed perceive both of them as wolves in sheep's clothing.