Okay Great people of Illinois, give it to me straight....

[Daylin Byak]

What are the Chances of beating Dennis Hastert of the 14th District. Now I don't know how Republican the 14th is and I know he has the edge cause he's the speaker of the house, but what are the chances? I know this opponent he's facing(John Lesch) is a strong progressive candidate I can tell you that, so I think he can give fat Denny a run for his money.

What do you think?

[Robbien]

1. I only know of Laesch from his appearance at YearlyKos

He is not getting a lot of free press so he may not be very well known. I just wish he would get some traction.

[madrchsod]

2. 0-nil-none-are you kidding?

sorry fat denny will be elected again even though he`s as crooked as he is mc huge. john will get more votes than zamora did but not enough. although i will say if john can win the latino voters the race maybe closer than most people, including me, think..i live in the hometown of ronny reagan so all i see is republicans...the democratic office has a little plaque noting that the street is officially ronald reagan way or something like that...

[raising2moredems]

16. You may be seeing repukes

but I won't bet the farm on the traditional ag-supporting-republicans pattern. My Grandpa is 89, former farmer, who supported republicans (too bad I couldn't make him see the light when reagan ran). BUT he has been quite emphatic since 2004 that he can no longer support them. He grew up in the area around "ronny's" hometown. His sister shares the same view on the pukes of today. If this is any kind of a trend in the over 65 age voting group, it is good news. Their dollars are fixed and nothing is getting any cheaper.

[Gary Kleppe]

3. Yes and no.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the chances of beating Hastert in a straight-out fight are pretty slim.

But there is a chance that, either now or later, Hastert could go the way of DeLay. If that happens, there's a very good chance for Laesch or another Democrat to pick up the seat.

[Radical Activist]

4. Slim

John is a good candidate, and upsets do occasionally happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Hastert is probably stuck there until he retires or until redistricting.

[mopinko]

5. the only hope, i think

is that people do seem to be responding to the whole fighting dem thing. so many people are sickened by what little truth is seeping into their consciousness, no matter how they try to keep it out. if john tells the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, maybe he has a prayer. i dunno.
and of course, the votes have to be counted. that's the biggest if.

[Bridget Dooley]

6. Not a chance in hell

It's the Cult of Coach Denny out in the 14th. People just absolutely adore the guy.

I think the only Democrat who would have half a chance against Hastert is Linda Chapa LaVia. I'm hoping she runs in 2008.

[dogman]

7. Gerrymander.

That's what you have to beat. When there was talk of doing this, the rumor was that Daley and his ilk told Emanuel not to redistrict, a la DeCay. Their are many who feel the pork delivered by Denny outweighs the effort to redistrict him out. Actually statistics show Illinois is still about 46th in return of Federal dollars. Denny is supposedly only staying in the race because Bushco asked him to. There are a number of GOPers waiting in the wings. Hastert did suffer a defeat from within the Kendall County GOP. His candidate for County SA lost in spite of the fact Denny is a precinct committeeman and his candidate the son of his former mentor and present business partner. But the total GOP primary vote exceeded the total Dem vote. There was a contest for Gov in the GOP. so the real question will be turnout. The GOP has a lot riding on the State GMA. GOTV is important providing it's Dem GOTV. We need more Headlines like this.
http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/top/2_1_AU15_HASTERT_S1.htm
Snip>Hastert's $2 million land profit
U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert made a $2 million profit on land sold to a real estate developer within a few miles of the proposed Prairie Parkway, a Beacon News investigation has found.<snip

And if John can fight back like this.
http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/city/2_1_AU16_LAESCH_S1.htm
Snip>Democrat Laesch rips GOP tactics
John Laesch cleared the air about his voting record Thursday.<snip

There is always a chance.
The problem is how many sheep are grazing these pastures. There are locals who will believe their one time high school teacher and coach turned public servant turned millionaire is "honest". Others love the fact they can tell people they know the SOTH and third in line to be President, acting like star struck fans they decry in Hollywood.

[mopinko]

8. And if John can fight back like this.

i have been deluded in the past, i will be deluded in the future. but i honestly, honestly believe that a candidate that stands up and tells the whole truth will win over middle of the road voters, old time republican voters, non-voters, and have dems falling all over him like he was elvis. not holding my breath, but i swear it is true.

[stevebreeze]

10. not surprisingly Zwemke has donated to Hastert

http://www.opensecrets.org/indivs/search.asp?NumOfThou=0&txtName=Zwemke&txtState=IL&txtZip=&txtEmploy=&txtCand=&txt2006=Y&txt2004=Y&txt2002=Y&Order=N

$2000 to Hastert another $5k to Rauschenberger a Hastert ally.

Zwemke lists his position as vice pres of MOSER ENTERPRISES
Moser enterprises "executive vice pres" has also donated to Hastert.

[dogman]

12. I'd like to see details of the sale of Hastert's previous home.

Moser developed the land to the North of his home in Yorkville. I was told his holdings were sold in two parcels and that the buyer of one parcel paid more than the asking price. I think the House was flipped.

[tritsofme]

9. Our real chance comes if we take back the House, because then Hastert

would most probably resign, and this would lead to a special election.

Even if we don't the seat will probably be open in 2008 because GOP rules term limit him as speaker.

So while there is no hope of getting rid of Hastert in this election, the future is at least a little more promising.

[stevebreeze]

11. Whether or not John stands a chance it is well worth the effort

Part of the reason for the 50 state effort concept is if Denny is busy covering his own ass he won't have as much time adn money to help marginal candidates who are in more competitive districts.

[kevsand]

13. I think that may have been one of the things that helped John to

decide to run. I know him from the time he spent down here two years ago in the 15th working for Gill, and he's a great progressive and an incredibly hard worker, but he knew going in that Hastert is the ultimate uphill-all-the-way windmill to tilt at. The thought of tying Hastert down in his own district, or at least minimizing his efforts on behalf of other repubs, may have been one of the key factors John felt made this worthwhile, regardless of how it comes out. And there's always the chance for events that eclipse the demographics...

[Bridget Dooley]

17. Agreed

It is well worth it for John to run in order to keep Hastert more occupied in the 14th.

Did any of you see the huge article on Denny's real estate buys in the Tribune today?:o

[mopinko]

18. link

and the rich get richer.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0606150161jun15,1,933558.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

:hi: bridget

[AtLiberty]

14. Kane County's Director of Elections is a Crook!!!

This was in the Daily Herald today in Soapbox Saturday:

Trust-worthy? Not:

The sanctity of the ballot is dear to most Americans, who trust the election process will be overseen by election officials who ensure votes are valid and protected. It was a similar wish for protection that prompted the loved ones of a St. Charles teacher, disabled by a car accident, to ask Kane County's Director of Elections David Bruun to be co-trustee of an $800,000 insurance settlement trust fund. Although Bruun stands convicted of raiding more than half of those funds, forcing the teacher into a state-supported nursing home, Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham - who hired him knowing of his prior multiple convictions - has defended him as a trustworthy election director. Cunningham's support continues even as a Kane County judge orders Bruun to repay a portion of the stolen money. We're betting voters have a far different view.

Annie Collins
Candidate, Kane County Clerk

[mopinko]

15. the red mirage

yup, yup. i believe if they ever are forced to actually count the actual votes, you will see those red patches shrivel up and die.

[Norquist Nemesis]

19. I'd hope so, but I'm not optimistic

That area has exploded in population and had good growth with economic development. No doubt, the fat bastard's firmly entrenched loyalist are giving him jubilant word of mouth support along the lines of "Look what Denny's done for us!"

During the 2004 campaign, I was canvassing for Kerry. It was inspiring (and thoroughly suprising) the number of people who would ask about defeating Hastert. Numerous households told me they gave alot of money to his opponent in that race. But unfortunately, they weren't voting.

So, unless the voters are going to look at the bigger picture beyond their own backyard, I'm not very positive about it. :( :( :(