What's Happening In The 1st?

[xthetylerx]

(From Mark Nickolas, of http://www.bluegrassreport.org)

"One of the most fascinating outcomes from last week's primary election was what happened in the Democratic primary for Congress in the vast 34-county 1st Congressional District which spans from the Mississippi River all the way to Lincoln County, which is farther east than Frankfort.

In that race, former Rep. Tom Barlow (D) received 80,519 votes, capturing 77% of the vote, in a district that experienced a Democratic turnout of 37.1%. Barlow received more votes than congressional primary winners John Yarmuth (D-KY3) and Mike Weaver (D-KY2) combined.

I'm not going to suggest that Barlow is going to knock off Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) -- at least not yet -- but I'd love to hear what you make of Barlow's performance and the heavy turnout. Keep in mind that Barlow's race was top of the ballot and while there were local races of importance in areas, I don't think they were in any greater number than in the other congressional districts where Democratic turnout was much lighter.

Have Democrats in the 1st reached their tipping point and they're coming home? Is this frustration? Since Barlow has already been elected and served in Congress, are voters so frustrated that they are willing to send him back now that 80,000 have indicated they know he is on the ballot and willingly voted for him already?

My political instinct tells me that Barlow's showing is significant, and I've just added "KY-1" to categories here, just in case..."

What are your predictions on how the House race will go between Barlow and Whitfield? Percentages? Turnout?