How are Blanco and Landrieu looking for '07/'08?

[election_2004]

I know that both of them were elected by razor-thin margins.

Governor Blanco will be up for reelection in November 2007, right? How do her prospects look? Is she vulnerable, or has she been in pretty good shape so far?

And what about Mary Landrieu? 2008 will be a presidential election year...is there any way that national momentum on the Democrats' side could hypothetically help her out when she runs for reelection?

[votefordan]

1. On Blanco and Landrieu

I spoke with a Republican from Slidell who doesn't believe that anyone would be able to form a real enough challenge to Gov. Blanco since she would be the incumbant. Any hopeful would probably wait another 4 years to run for an open seat. I think that is a valid point. Why would any Republican put forth enough of an effort to go against an incumbant when the seat is open in another 4 years?


When it comes to Mary Landrieu, I do not know. My guess would be by that time that Bobby Jindal would try and run for that race. But that is based on nothing more than the Republicans looking to take another Senate seat and they would probably see Congressman Jindal as the best shot to win state wide (if they can throw enough dirt at Landrieu).

[Hippo_Tron]

2. Blanco's re-election depends on whether she cuts a deal with Benson

If the Saints stay, she's in good shape. If they leave, she's fucked.

Landrieu, it's way too early to tell. We'll see who runs against her, and how Louisiana is in the presidential race in 2008.

[election_2004]

3. What confuses me....

There's a certain faction of Democrats obviously pushing for Hillary Clinton to get the presidential nomination.

But wouldn't having Hillary at the top of the ticket actually HURT Landrieu's chances of reelection in a state like Louisiana? (no offense to progressive Louisianans on the board...I just understand that your state is generally more conservative as a whole).

[zeal]

4. saints

I really don't think the saints will have that much of an impact,
after all, losing them would safe some money...

we ARE the only state that pays a NFL team to stay in our state, isn't that extortion?

[adam121379]

5. If the saints go, Blanco has no hope.

The Saints going would definitely have a huge impact on the state, especially since if it happens it will definitely be seen as Blanco's fault.

While Louisiana does technically 'pay' the Saints to stay in New Orleans, study after study has shown that for every dollar we pay the Saints, they bring in 2 or 3 times that much in taxes from tickets, hotels, visitors and so on. Losing them would not save the state any money, it would be the opposite.

I have no doubt that if they go, so goes Blanco.

Aside from that, they are both looking pretty good. Obviously, it will depend on what the Republican BS machine starts throwing out prior to the election, but at the moment, the SurveyUSA poll has Landrieu at 54% approve, 39% disapprove. It has Blanco at 55% approve, 36% disapprove.

[election_2004]

6. That's why I worry about the Hillary factor

Obviously, it will depend on what the Republican BS machine starts throwing out prior to the election

Even though Hillary Clinton probably wouldn't carry Louisiana in the General Election, wouldn't having Hillary as the Democratic presidential nominee make it easier for the Republican Noise Machine to sensationally tie Landrieu to "Clinton liberalism" in 2008?

No matter how much Mary might try to distance herself from Hillary's image...wouldn't Landrieu benefit from a less-polarizing figure as the Democrats' national standard-bearer?

[zeal]

7. watch out for...

Watch out for the religious nut factor, it's really growing in Cenla,
our governor has avoided it by being conservative in religion (pro-life, etc), but it could hit mary hard

[Hippo_Tron]

9. Our runoff election system gives Landrieu an advantage

Had Vitter been forced into a runoff, Chris John could've defeated him in a squeaker. I would say that inevitably Landrieu will get into a runoff unless she can win outright (possible if there's no challenger). A lot of it will depend on who the NRSC recruits to run against her.

[Blue Dawg]

10. Agree...

...Bush's coatails and the fact Kerry bombed in the south was the only reason that Vitter wasn't forced into a run-off and John didn't win IMHO.

John Breaux would have campaigned very hard for John in such a race as he did for Landrieu in 2003, even while Bush and every republican shipped down to campaign against her was going out of their way to seem freindly towards him... sticking two fingers up at the GOP the way Breaux did in 2003 really impressed me at the time, i still like the guy, on some things he's too conservative, but i still like and respect him and just wish he'd not retired :(

[Hippo_Tron]

11. Chris John was about as bad of a candidate as we could get

Vitter, on the other hand, was a pretty good candidate for the GOP. He had clever ads, seemed like a likeable guy, etc. John was a huge DINO who was no better than Vitter except for the D by his name. His campaign was poorly managed and his attack ads were crap. Plus there was that whole cock fighting thing, which was just ridiculous.

[Blue Dawg]

12. John's campaign wasn't great...

...but i reject totally the idea of him being a "DINO"!

I hate the idea of calling anyone, except perhaps Ben Nelson and Zell Miller "DINOs". Same goes for when conservatives call some of their moderates "RINOs" though it makes sense when it comes to Lincoln Chafee and perhaps the likes of Bill Weld.

I'm proud to be part of a party that contains everyone from Barbra Boxer to John Breaux, neither is more of a democrat than the other, we're all Democrats dedicated to the belife in a socially just and fair America as its founders intended it to be. This is not so of Republicans... it is however important to remember that, with a few exceptions, most americans, republican or democrat want whats best for America, the simple fact when it comes to Dems vs. Reps is that "We're right their wrong (to quote James Carville :D )

[Hippo_Tron]

13. I like John Breaux, but not Chirs John

Breaux is really a man of another era, but overall he was a good dem. Chirs John was no John Breaux.

[Blue Dawg]

14. Agree with you on that...

...Breaux was a class act in the mould of other great southern democratic senators like Al Gore senior or Russel Long (his mentor).

But i don't think John was that bad, i don't think he had the political skills of Breaux, nor anywhere close, but he'd sure have been better than Vitter.

[Blue Dawg]

8. Ditto...

...Hillary could do a great deal of damage. Both Landrieu and Pryor in Arkansas would be in deep trouble with her at the top of the ticket, its actually really worrying for me :( Evan Max Baucus could be in trouble.

Remember that with Kerry at the top of the ticket, the result in the senate races across the south where still pretty close, with Hillary I think she’d be a far bigger problem for candidates in red states further down the ticket.

A progressive candidate like Feingold would actually probably be better than Hillary, and not hurt candidates further down the ticket as she would.

Hillary’s big problem is that moderates see her as a loser and too liberal, liberals see her as an opportunist and a loser, and most Americans just don’t like her and see her as cold and manipulative (all be it unfairly IMHO).

In short she’d be a disaster and not least for folks like Landrieu, Pryor and Baucus.