Hey Mainers! Can you folks educate me? What's up with the Maine Senate race?

[SteppingRazor]

In almost every other close race in the country, things are swinging toward the Democrats. The DSCC is actually seriously talking about Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi-B. Picking up 10 seats is within the realm of possibilities.

And yet...

There sits Maine, with grim poll after grim poll showing Collins with a lead of about 10, give or take a couple points. What's happening up there and why? I would think it would be a similar case to the 2006 Rhode Island race of Whitehouse against Chafee, or the current one in Oregon with Jeff Merkley against Gordon Smith -- Sure, the incumbent Republican's relatively moderate and a nice person and all, but why have Democrat Lite when you can have the real thing? Does that line not work up in the Pine Tree State? Or has the Allen campaign gone a different route?

Gimme the skinny, DUers! :hi:

[ticapnews]

1. My take

Susan is insulated against the Bush backlash because she and Snowe have a reputation for bucking the national party. So while the GOP is hurting in other states it has not effected this race.

Tom got swift-boated by an out-of-state business group with this labor stuff that portrayed Tom as a gangster and did not fight back. Landrieu, Franken and others got hit but not nearly as hard or as effectively. He insisted on running a positive campaign and requested the DSCC and 527 groups keep any attacks on Susan out of Maine. This allowed Susan to remain mostly positive in her direct ads but her 527 groups pummeled the crap out of Tom.

The 2nd district was always going to be a tough nut for Tom to crack and the campaign seems to have failed to make a foothold there. On the other hand, Susan has broad support from moderates and women in the 1st CD which directly undercuts Tom's strengths.

Barring some event that changes the race dramatically, Susan will win by at least 55-45.

[SteppingRazor]

2. I get that Susan is somewhat insulated by the Bush backlash...

but, after all, no Republican could be more insulated against it than Lincoln Chafee, and it wasn't enough to save him in 2006, when Bush was a bit more popular than he is now. I guess I've been considering Maine a reliably blue state like Rhode Island, but that's not the case?

[ticapnews]

3. She is much more insulated

The media here love her and her approval rating among Democrats is surprisingly high. She has learned the bait and switch from Snowe and outdone the master. She is running ads trumpeting her chairmanship of DHS and providing oversight on defense contracts and Katrina waste. And no one seems to be calling her on it. It's sad, really. She and Snowe will remain in the Senate for as long as they want.

[RBInMaine]

6. BUT, Whitehouse ran a GOOD campaign, and Tom's has been SHITTY. Here's why:

1) He HAS NOT connected with the rural 2nd district voters. In Maine you have to run 2 campaigns: a northern and southern. He has simply run a shitty campaign up here in the 2nd district. Total DISCONNECT.

2) He got "card-checked" BIGTIME and TOALLY FAILED to respond. That drove up his negatives bigtime. HUGE SCREW-UP !

3) He has not excited his base nor those originally undecided with a powerful narrative about CHANGE, fixing the local economy, Collins' record of voting with Bush 81% of the time, and the NEED to change the Senate dark blue in order to get something done (as Whitehouse did so effectively against Chaffee).

4) His ads have been aloof, abstract, non-specific, non-personal, and boring.

5) He spent WAY too much time just going around and speaking to friendly little groups of Dems instead of getting out there in the diners and shopping centers talking to EVERYONE.

HUGE disappointment ! It was always going to be hard to beat the popular 2nd district hometown girl, but he could have cut into her demographics leads with the RIGHT CAMPAIGN and pulled it out by 2 to four points. He has instead run a SHITTY, WISHY WASHY campaign, and that's why he'll lose by 5 to 10 points. Too bad. VERY sad !

[eShirl]

7. we've had two Republican senators for a while now

our Republican politicians are usually old-style, moderate Republicans that you almost never see anymore nationally

[high density]

9. Northern Maine is quite red

Tom Allen has forgotten that he has to win that part of the state as well. He is used to running in the very blue first district and never changed his strategy for this senate run.

The other part is that the media here props up Collins, much like they did for McCain.

[mainegreen]

4. Well, for one Tom is running a rather lackluster campaign.

I have been dumbfounded by how it alternates from meek and tepid to bizarre attacks on subjects that wont help him. It's really seemed to lack focus and organization.

Susan Collins hasn't pissed people off, so Tom can't run on a shabby me-too campaign.


Also, both Snowe and Collins have a reputation, whether deserved or not, for bringing home the pork in terms of job generation and there is a notion that when they sell out their vote for something unpalatable, they do so by getting something good for Maine.

[Fyddlestyx]

5. I tend to agree with mainegreen...

It hasn't been an exciting campaign. I canvassed this past weekend, and some people told me they were voting straight dem except for the Senate race. One man said it wasn't about the issues...he just "likes Collins for some reason."

[luckyleftyme2]

8. medicare was her weak point.

She countered it with an ad. If Tom had called her on it in a debate it would have helped.
that medicare drug program is a tax payer rip -off!
She needs to be called on this. Most of the ad she ran is wishfull thinking and not fact.

[sandyd921]

10. When I canvass or phone bank and someone tells me that

I tell them to write her a personal note of thanks and then vote in the interest of themselves and their country (for the Democrat). These perceptions of her (right or wrong) do present a barrier but it's possible, through persuasion (and not simply ending the conversation when they say something like this), to convert at least some of these folks toward voting in their self-interest.